Bitunix analyst: Stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls suppress rate-cut expectations, BTC continues to test the 80,000-dollar liquidity range

BlockBeats news, on May 11, US nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, significantly higher than the market expectation of 62,000, with the previous figure also revised up to 185,000, indicating the US labor market remains resilient. Although consumer confidence in May dropped to a historic low, the one-year inflation expectation unexpectedly declined, leading the market to increasingly anticipate "economic slowdown but inflation remaining sticky."

Federal Reserve officials have recently maintained a wait-and-see stance. Goolsbee believes the employment market is still quite stable, but inflation performance remains unsatisfactory; Lagarde frankly admits the central bank is currently caught between the dilemma of "acting too early or too late." The market is starting to reprice the possibility of "high interest rates being sustained for longer."

On the geopolitical front, US-Iran negotiations have not achieved substantive progress. Iran has officially rejected the US proposal, but both sides continue to communicate via Pakistan, with talks shifting focus to maritime security and ceasefire frameworks. There are recent signs of shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz as Qatar LNG vessels passed through for the first time in about 70 days, reflecting a decreased concern in the market over a full blockade.

In the crypto market, from the BTC liquidation map, the area close to $80,000 is still a core boundary for short-term forces, with significant accumulated long liquidity, while above, the $83,000 region shows a large short liquidation zone. Overall, the market remains in a short-term range-bound tug-of-war, with funds waiting for new macro catalysts to emerge.

In terms of derivatives data, BTC OI continues to slip slightly to 25.6B, indicating leveraged funds in the market are still cooling and short-term willingness to chase prices is limited. Funding rates have not turned noticeably positive, but short pressure has eased, suggesting the market is waiting for macroeconomic data and geopolitical situations to become clearer before deciding on the next stage direction.