U.S. Treasury bonds see a tug-of-war between bulls and bears as the Iran stalemate and IG supply repeatedly test the market

⑴ Trump’s comments on tariffs sparked market concerns. After his rejection of Iran’s peace proposal, Brent crude returned above $100, combined with a sell-off in UK bonds triggered by uncertainty over the British Prime Minister’s political future. U.S. Treasury bonds came under overnight pressure and declined. ⑵ After the market opened, CTA short covering drove a rebound, but this was followed by the concentrated announcement of 11 investment-grade corporate bond issuances. Sell orders related to rate locking suppressed opening buying interest. ⑶ Leveraged accounts bought approximately 15 thousand contracts of 5-year, 20 thousand contracts of 10-year, and 8 thousand contracts of ultra-long U.S. Treasury futures. Along with a new round of CTA short covering, this pushed the yields of the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds to resistance levels at 4.02%, 4.37%, and 4.95% respectively, after which the upward momentum paused.