BTC Market Pulse: Week 20

Overview

Bitcoin spent the last week grinding higher from the high-$77Ks into the low-$82Ks, with buyers continuing to absorb pullbacks even as momentum started to cool near local highs. The Spot CVD has surged, reflecting strong bullish sentiment and heightened conviction in upward price movements. Concurrently, Spot Volume has increased, indicating that recent price movements are gaining traction with stronger investor participation. However, the moderation in Price Momentum points to more balanced buying and selling pressure, hinting at a potential stabilization phase in the market.

In the futures market, a similar story unfolds with an increased appetite for risk. Futures Open Interest has risen, suggesting heightened speculative activity and a willingness to take on more risk, while Perpetual CVD has surged, indicating persistent bullish momentum. However, the Long-Side Funding Payment has declined, signaling a shift towards short-side interest and a possible waning of bullish sentiment.

In the options market, decreased demand for downside protection and rising open interest suggest a shift toward neutral to slightly bullish expectations. However, the Volatility Spread has surged, indicating that options are pricing in significantly more risk than has been realized, reflecting elevated uncertainty among participants.

On-chain activity has strengthened notably, with Daily Active Addresses, Entity-Adjusted Transfer Volume, and Total Fee Volume all rising, pointing to a more engaged user base and increased network activity. At the same time, liquidity conditions continue to stabilize, with reduced short-term speculative capital lowering immediate sell-side pressure while Realized Cap Change signals modest net capital inflows.

Profitability metrics have also improved, with the market shifting from unrealized losses back into profit. However, Percent Supply in Profit remains below levels typically associated with heavy profit-taking, suggesting optimism remains measured rather than euphoric.

In summary, Bitcoin’s market structure continues to improve, supported by stronger on-chain activity, healthier profitability, and more stable holder positioning. While bullish undertones are building, softer capital inflows and cautious sentiment indicate the market remains sensitive to shifts in risk appetite.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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