Everbright Futures 0515 Hotspot Tracking: Inflation Pressure Unresolved, Silver Plunges with Heavy Volume During Session

This week, silver has experienced a roller-coaster market. In the first half of the week, spurred by Peru issuing an emergency decree concerning its energy crisis and the market's worries about reduced silver supply, prices surged sharply. However, in the latter half of the week, the release of US CPI and PPI data highlighted a significant rise in inflationary pressure. Combined with US April retail sales up 4.9% year-on-year—the strongest performance in nearly eight months—market expectations for subsequent rate cuts cooled further, and talk of rate hikes emerged. A strong dollar suppressed the performance of precious metals. Additionally, the US Senate approved Walsh as Federal Reserve Chair. After taking office, Walsh will inevitably face great challenges regarding inflation and rate cuts. The market is watching closely for his first official remarks. Ahead of this, risk-averse capital took profits, silver saw large liquidation, and intraday losses reached over 10%.

From a fundamental perspective, data from the Silver Institute shows that global silver is expected to be in a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year by 2026, with the supply gap expanding by 15% compared to 2025, further highlighting the vulnerability of the supply side. Meanwhile, silver demand continues to rise, and its industrial properties have become a core driver for prices. Beyond the traditional photovoltaic sector, there will be major developments globally in AI computational infrastructure and new energy vehicles along with supporting facilities, all demanding large amounts of silver, which currently cannot be easily substituted by other metals. Both domestic and overseas exchange inventories are at multi-year lows, and the tight pattern in physical delivery persists. After short-term pessimism has released some risk at high prices, there may still be expectations for price recovery moving forward, with attention focused on miners and macro sentiment transitions.

Source: Wind, Guangda Futures Research Institute

Writer: Shi Yueming

Occupational Qualification: F03097365

Trading Consulting Qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan