Expectations of Rate Hikes by Fed and BOJ Rise, US Bond Yields Break Key Threshold, Short-Term Pressure Mounts on Risk Assets

BlockBeats News, May 17th. As of Friday's close, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond surged to a one-year high of 4.530%, surpassing the 4.50% policy inflection point that former President Trump had intervened in multiple times.

On the other hand, changes in the Fed's leadership and macroeconomic data have led to an increasing expectation of rate hikes, with the possibility of a rate cut now seemingly completely ruled out. At the same time, the market is highly anticipating a rate hike decision by the Bank of Japan in June (with a probability as high as 80% on Polymarket).

Furthermore, SpaceX's massive fundraising and renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran are adding to the uncertainty. These factors are also expected to have a significant impact on market liquidity and confidence.

Considering all these factors, risk assets are likely to face significant pressure in the short term. Unless strong measures are taken to reverse the situation, Friday's widespread decline may just be the beginning of an adjustment.