Everbright Futures 0519 Gold Review: US-Iran Negotiation Prospects Remain Uncertain, Gold Price Fluctuates at Low Levels
On May 18, COMEX gold stopped falling and stabilized, fluctuating at low levels, closing at $4,570.8 per ounce, up 0.20%. The domestic SHFE gold night session opened higher but moved lower, closing at 998.12 yuan per gram, up 0.04%.
As the US-Iran negotiations drag on and continue to test both sides' patience, earlier on Monday, Trump stated he would not consider making any concessions to Iran and threatened to resume military strikes. However, later that night, he suddenly "put on the brakes" again, saying the attack was postponed because serious talks were ongoing and that leaders and allies from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE believed both sides would eventually reach an agreement, which will stipulate that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons as a core clause. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations, oil prices first fell and then rose, US stocks came under pressure, gold prices stopped falling but remained volatile at low levels, and prices are still below the 1000 threshold. According to media reports, Trump will preside over Walsh’s inauguration ceremony on Friday, and attention is on Walsh’s first official statement after taking office.
The current precious metals market is facing a triple test: First, the US economy shows resilience but is threatened by secondary inflation, which once again dampens expectations for rate cuts; second, with new Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh about to take office, the market fears that under the current above-expectation inflation, his first official stance may remain hawkish, putting further pressure on market liquidity expectations; third, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is in a "perilous" state, with concerns that both parties’ patience will run out and conflict could resume, especially as the issue of the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, posing greater risks to the energy market. Under persistently high inflation and the current Federal Reserve policy framework, gold faces significant pressure. It is recommended that investors lower their expectations for gold prices in the first half of the year and focus in the short term on developments in the US-Iran situation.
Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Author: Shi Yueming
Practicing qualification: F03097365
Trading advisory qualification: Z0017563
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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