Bitunix Analyst: US Treasuries, Japanese Government Bonds, and Middle East Risks Remained Unresolved and Even Worsened, Global Markets Enter 'High Yield Stress Test'

BlockBeats News, May 19th. The core risk in the global market has shifted from the inflation issue to the "repricing of sovereign bond markets." The yield on the US 10-year Treasury officially surpassed 4.5%, with the 30-year US bond rising back above 5%. Morgan Stanley issued a direct warning that this has entered a dangerous zone that could lead to a significant pullback in the US stock market. The market is beginning to worry that if high oil prices, war risks, and fiscal deficits coincide, long-term US interest rates may spiral out of control.

At the same time, issues in the Japanese market are rapidly deteriorating. The yield on the Japanese 30-year government bond continues to hit new record highs, and the Japanese government has even begun discussing compiling a supplementary budget to address energy and price pressures. This signifies that one of the world's largest sources of low-interest funds is gradually losing stability. More importantly, Japanese officials have clearly stated that if the yen approaches 160 again, they will be prepared to intervene in the forex market at any time. However, they must avoid selling US bonds to drive up US yields, indicating that the global bond market and the forex market have begun to constrain each other.

Another major theme comes from the Middle East. Recently, Trump canceled the planned military strike against Iran, which the market temporarily interpreted as a decrease in risk. However, in reality, the US and Iran now seem to be engaged in a long-term war of attrition with no clear resolution in sight. Control of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, and energy sanctions remain unresolved issues, meaning that oil prices and shipping risks could still repeatedly impact the market.

As for the crypto market, BTC has recently entered a high-leverage oscillation structure. From the liquidation heat map, significant short liquidity is still present near 78,000, while a substantial accumulation of long positions can be seen around 75,500. The price has been fluctuating between 76,000 and 78,000 recently, indicating that market funds are awaiting direction. If global long-term interest rates continue to rise, the volatility of risk assets may rapidly increase once again.