Morgan Stanley sets the benchmark target for the TOPIX index at 4,300 points

Golden Ten Data reported on May 22 that, in its mid-term outlook, Morgan Stanley considers Japanese equities the top investment choice in the Asian market. The bank has set a target of 4,300 points for the TOPIX index, suggesting about 12% upside remains. The preference is supported by the capital expenditure supercycle theory, with earnings forecasts raised for sectors including materials, semiconductors, technology hardware, and defense capital goods, while consumer-facing industries face broad downward pressure. Energy shocks are viewed as a short-term drag rather than a structural threat; however, rising producer prices and supply disruptions related to the North American Free Trade Agreement have complicated the timeline for Japan’s nominal GDP recovery.