Economists raise US inflation expectations as wars delay anticipated Fed rate cuts
Golden Ten Data reported on May 22 that as the price shock triggered by the Iran war begins to spread from energy costs to broader sectors, economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. inflation and postponed the timeline for the Federal Reserve's next rate cut. They expect the core PCE indicator to rise more than previously anticipated, with both inflation indicators remaining above 3% by the end of this year. Economists are split on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, whereas previous surveys predicted the next rate cut would arrive in October. Luke Tilley, Chief Economist at Wilmington Trust Corp, stated that “this familiar feeling is coming back again: the Federal Reserve and markets are worried that a surge in energy prices will trigger inflation, much like they worried last year about tariffs causing inflation.” Given that consumer spending is already relatively weak, consumers are more likely to cut other expenditures in response to spending more at the gas station. The survey shows that economists still believe U.S. consumer spending and gross domestic product will grow by about 2% this year, basically unchanged from earlier forecasts, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months has dropped to 25%. In addition, economists have slightly raised their forecasts for employment growth in the U.S. this year, but still expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5% in the third quarter.
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