HOKA's DTC is on the move again
HOKA's DTC is gaining momentum again.
For the fourth fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2026, Deckers, HOKA’s parent company, achieved revenue of $1.119 billion, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year; full fiscal year 2026 revenue reached $5.47 billion, a year-on-year growth of 9.8%.
HOKA remains the most important growth engine. In fiscal year 2026, HOKA’s revenue grew 15.9% to $2.587 billion; Q4 revenue increased 14.5% year-on-year to $671 million, setting a new single-quarter record for the brand.
In recent years, HOKA has rapidly expanded beyond its niche with maximalist running shoes, trail running, marathons, and outdoor lifestyle scenes, establishing a strong brand identity between performance sports and everyday style.
However, as the brand has scaled up, market attention has shifted towards the resilience and quality of HOKA’s growth: Can it sustain strong demand, channel efficiency, and full-price sales at greater volumes?
DTC is precisely the key indicator for measuring this.
In the first half of fiscal year 2026, HOKA’s DTC channel was under some pressure. In the first fiscal quarter, HOKA’s global DTC only grew 3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 30% growth rate for wholesale during the same period; in the second quarter, HOKA’s DTC growth rebounded to 8%, but still lagged behind the 13% growth in wholesale channels.
This was due to both high base effects and increased consumer caution in the U.S., with some demand shifting towards multi-brand offline retail scenarios.
The shift came in the second half. In the holiday season (Q3), HOKA DTC grew 19% year-on-year, with wholesale up 18%, restoring balance between channels; by Q4, HOKA DTC growth stayed at 18%, continuing to outpace wholesale’s 13% growth in the same period.
For “newcomer” running shoe brand HOKA, DTC is not just a sales channel, but also an embodiment of its brand management capability. Through directly operated stores, own e-commerce, membership systems, and running communities, the brand can more directly gain consumer feedback, coordinate product launches, and reduce reliance on external channels and discount promotions.
Especially as running shoe consumption becomes more professional and segmented, the ability to retain runners, trail users, and lifestyle consumers within its own ecosystem directly impacts HOKA’s repeat purchase, average order value, and full-price sales capabilities.
Deckers is also accelerating HOKA’s direct store rollout. Management noted in the earnings call that they expect to open 20 to 25 self-operated HOKA stores each year in the future, focusing on major cities and international markets, and will continue to open stores in Asia, especially China.
These stores are not only sales terminals but also function as product showcases, try-on experiences, consumer engagement hubs, and entry points for online DTC conversion.
Looking ahead to fiscal year 2027, Deckers expects revenue to reach $5.86-$5.91 billion, with HOKA revenues expected to achieve low double-digit growth and UGG to see mid-single-digit growth.
Among these, HOKA’s DTC growth is anticipated to outpace wholesale, and international market growth will continue to exceed that of the U.S. domestic market.
On the profit side, caution remains necessary. In fiscal year 2026, Deckers’ gross margin was 57.7%, declining 20 basis points from the previous year. Management pointed out this included around 80 basis points in tariff impacts, but approximately 60 basis points in underlying gross margin expansion—mainly from product mix optimization and lower freight costs—alleviated some pressure.
For fiscal year 2027, the company’s forecasts for gross margin and operating margin are both lower than fiscal year 2026. Guidance for gross margin is about 56.5%, and operating margin around 21.5%, lower than the approximately 23.1% in 2026.
Compared to the cyclical fluctuations in the U.S. domestic market, China remains one of the most promising regions for HOKA’s international expansion.
Management stated that HOKA has enhanced its premium brand presence in China, keeping solid full-price sales in both existing and newly opened stores, as well as partner channels, thus driving market share growth.
In China and other international markets, whether HOKA can leverage DTC to build a loyal core user base, maintain pricing power during wholesale expansion, and continue to deliver product and community value in the high-end running shoe competition will remain critical for the future.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Updated: Delta Air Lines warns that as fuel prices hit profits, airline capacity will tighten further
Delta Airlines lowers its annual profit forecast due to an expected increase in fuel costs to $6 billion. The CEO stated that ticket prices have risen by about 20% this year, with limited passenger resistance. Analysts warn that maintaining high ticket prices in 2027 is critical for improving profitability. The article includes comments from the earnings call and analyst remarks. Rajesh Kumar Singh/Shivansh Tiwary, Reuters Chicago, October 9 - Delta Airlines (DAL.N) said on Friday that, despite strong travel demand and rising ticket prices, soaring fuel costs have forced it to cut its 2026 profit expectations by nearly a quarter. So, the airline industry may need to further limit flight growth next year to protect profitability. This warning highlights the increasingly tough challenges faced by U.S. airlines. While strong demand and restricted seat growth have allowed airlines to significantly raise ticket prices and offset higher fuel costs, aggressively increasing flights to capture more demand may intensify competition, making it harder to maintain high fares and protect profits. Based in Atlanta, Delta now expects its annual fuel expenditure to increase by about $6 billion compared to last year—about $2 billion higher than its July forecast—due to the Iran war (link) causing global jet fuel prices to spike. Airlines worldwide are preparing for a prolonged fuel shock. Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair Group RYA.I, said Thursday that high jet fuel prices could persist for another 12-18 months (link), adding more pressure on airlines to raise fares and control costs. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20261008/A4A-JET-FUEL-DAILY-1Y/xmpjwjnmbvr/chart.png “In a high-cost environment, you can’t simply grow your way out,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said on the earnings call. He noted that the industry has already taken steps to restrict capacity, but more measures will be needed next year to improve profitability. Bastian said Delta raised ticket prices about 20% this year, and passenger resistance has been limited. He is confident that even if fuel costs eventually drop, the high fares can still be maintained. Delta lowered its adjusted annual earnings per share forecast from the July prediction of $6.50-$7.50 to $5.10-$5.60. According to LSEG data, the midpoint of the new range is below analysts’ average expectation of $5.46. Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.72, four cents below analysts’ average forecast. In midday trading, shares of Delta dropped 1.7%, United Airlines UAL.O fell 1.4%, and both American Airlines AAL.O and Southwest Airlines LUV.N were down about 1%. Delta partly shields itself from rising fuel costs by owning a refinery outside Philadelphia (link), which is expected to generate over $700 million in profits this year. Even with this buffer, the airline expects its fourth-quarter fuel price to rise from $3.61 per gallon in Q3 to $4.25 per gallon. Delta forecasts adjusted fourth-quarter earnings per share to be between $1.15-$1.65, with the $1.40 midpoint roughly matching analysts’ average expectation of $1.39. Fare increases Government data shows that in the first eight months of 2026, U.S. airlines spent $42.9 billion on fuel, an increase of $13.2 billion compared to the same period last year despite slightly reduced consumption. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, strong demand and limited seat growth pushed average U.S. airline ticket prices up by about 25% year-on-year between April and August. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-AIRLINES/FUEL/lbpgdnbzwvq/chart.png Analysts at Melius Research said that despite surging fuel costs, Delta’s ability to raise fares helps keep second-half profits roughly stable. Still, they warn that the company’s profit margin has struggled to improve over the years. “It is critical for margin improvement to maintain or raise fares in 2027,” they wrote in their research report. With industry capacity growth expected to accelerate in Q4, this challenge will likely become even tougher. Deutsche Bank analysts expect the proportion of fuel costs recouped through revenue measures to fall in Q4 and predict full recovery won’t happen until early 2027. Bastian noted that low industry returns are another reason for limiting capacity growth. He said Delta will be cautious with its 2027 capacity plan until the fuel price outlook becomes clearer. He added that international routes may account for a larger share of Delta’s capacity expansion compared to domestic routes. Currently, Delta says its premium cabins and corporate travel business remain strong, and its economy cabin business is gradually improving. With Q4 ticket bookings already exceeding 60%, Delta expects revenue to increase about 20% year-on-year, despite limited capacity growth. Executives said early booking trends for Q1 2027 are also encouraging. (For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several
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