"Safety supervision storm" is approaching: Where will coal prices go? Multiple institutions assess: Beware of a retreat after a spike

老虎证券2026/05/25 05:11

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According to reports, on May 22, a gas explosion occurred at the Liushen Yu Coal Mine of Shanxi Tongzhou Group in Qin Yuan County, Changzhi City, Shanxi Province. As the Ministry of Emergency Management intervenes and the State Council accident investigation team conducts a rigorous investigation, a “storm” targeting coal mine safety supervision is brewing. As a result, expectations of a tightening in raw coal supply have risen. On May 24, an anonymous coal industry insider told reporters that, based on past experience, this Shanxi mining accident will most likely trigger a major safety inspection across the coal industry. A new round of thorough inspections and rectifications will definitely affect output, but from a safety perspective, some large coal mines cannot be shut down for too long.

New Century Futures reviewed historical data from the past ten years and pointed out that on the day of a major coal mine accident, the probability of coking coal futures rising reaches 85.7%, with an average increase of about 1.59%. The market reacts extremely sensitively to expectations of supply tightening. Research from New Century Futures shows that although major safety incidents can ignite market enthusiasm in the short term, the momentum is very weak. In similar accidents in the past, the probability of coking coal futures prices declining in the month of the accident reached as high as 71.4%, with an average decrease of 6.11%. “Pulse-type rises, followed by a drop within the month” often become the norm.

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Latest Update October 9 – The Financial Times reported on Thursday that Starbucks (SBUX.O) has explored a potential acquisition of Chipotle (CMG.N). This move would bring CEO Brian Niccol back to the Mexican burrito chain he once led. Starbucks declined to comment, saying the company remains "fully focused" on its business turnaround. Chipotle's stock fell about 4% to $31.32 on Friday, after surging 6.2% in the previous trading session. Limited strategic rationale BTIG expressed "high skepticism," stating that the deal does not make sense operationally, would cause significant dilution for Starbucks shareholders, and would disrupt management operations. "Over the years we've heard many stories about multi-brand acquisitions... but few have materialized, and even fewer have succeeded," BTIG noted. William Blair pointed out that Starbucks’ $9.4 billion net debt as of June makes it difficult to finance an acquisition and could push the combined company’s leverage ratio to about six times—considered high for the restaurant industry. D.A. Davidson stated the probability of the deal succeeding is 20% or less, given the significant differences between the brands and the apparent lack of clear synergies. Raymond James noted that due to the low overlap in menus, supply chain benefits are likely limited, while performance among multi-brand restaurant platforms has been mixed. eMarketer’s Suzy Davidkhanian commented that Niccol's familiarity may reduce execution risk, but investors might still see the deal as a "costly distraction" during Starbucks’ transformation. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. Automated translation may be inaccurate or fail to include necessary context; Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translated text and provides it solely for readers’ convenience. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any damage or loss resulting from the use of automated translation functions.)

路透社•2026/10/09 16:16