Bitunix analyst: Progress continues on the US-Iran ceasefire, but the global market's real concerns now extend beyond just the war

BlockBeats reports that on May 25, although the global market remains focused on US-Iran negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, capital is truly starting to pay attention to a much deeper issue—whether, in the presence of high inflation, high interest rates, and sovereign debt risks, global central banks can still maintain a stable market as they have for over a decade.

Currently, although a US-Iran deal is gradually coming to the surface—including a limited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a 60-day framework agreement, and the restart of nuclear talks—there are still significant differences on core issues such as highly enriched uranium, the lifting of sanctions, asset unfreezing, and the Lebanese front. This means that, even as the market begins to price in "de-escalation of war," capital has yet to fully return to a risk-on mode.

More importantly, the market is now experiencing a phenomenon that has rarely occurred in the past two years—the "return of rate hike expectations." The US interest rate futures market has already started to price in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as October, with a fully priced-in 25 basis point hike by the end of the year. Federal Reserve Governor Waller has clearly stated that if inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed will still need to raise rates; meanwhile, internal discussions at the European Central Bank have begun to more directly address the possibility of a rate hike in June. This suggests that the market’s original "rate cuts to save the market" narrative is being replaced by a new expectation of "prolonged high interest rates."

At the core of all this is the fact that the global bond market is starting to push back against the logic of "central banks always backstop" that has been prevalent for over a decade. Mohamed El-Erian has actually pinpointed the greatest current risk: in the past, whether during a financial crisis, a pandemic, or a war, the market believed central banks would ultimately rescue risk assets through rate cuts, QE, and fiscal stimulus, leading "buying the dip" to become the world’s most successful trading strategy. But now, high inflation, growing debt, and sovereign credit pressures are limiting the ability of central banks to intervene, and for the first time, the market faces a situation in which "policymakers want to help, but may not be able to."

This explains the recent sharp divergence in global assets. On one hand, US AI and tech stocks remain at high levels thanks to liquidity inertia and growth expectations; on the other hand, US Treasury yields, Japanese long-term bonds, and European bond markets have all started to experience sharp volatility simultaneously. This indicates that capital is reassessing: if central banks will not be able to provide unlimited liquidity in the future, then all highly valued assets will once again face pressure from "real interest rates" and "cash flow discounting."

In the crypto market, BTC in the short term will continue to receive support from the risk appetite recovery brought by de-escalation in the Middle East, but if global rate markets continue to price in rate hikes, highly leveraged and highly valued assets will still face pressure from liquidity tightening. The biggest variable in the market right now is not just war, but whether global policy tools’ influence on the market is beginning to wane.