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Barclays: The Reserve Bank of India may keep rates unchanged in June

Barclays: The Reserve Bank of India may keep rates unchanged in June

老虎证券老虎证券2026/05/25 09:55
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They stated that although the Reserve Bank of India may raise its inflation forecast and lower its growth outlook, the bank should ignore inflation rises driven by supply factors. However, the ongoing Middle East conflict has caused energy prices to remain high for an extended period, which could mean a more sustained increase in price pressure. This threatens Barclays’ basic assumption that the Reserve Bank of India will keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026. The bank added that spillover effects on transportation and other raw material costs may eventually require it to raise rates. “A weakening of economic growth will certainly affect any such decision, but at present, we believe an inflation shock is more likely than a growth shock.”
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