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The global natural gas market closely monitors weather volatility: With the Strait of Hormuz closed for nearly three months, LNG prices may surge by another 50%

The global natural gas market closely monitors weather volatility: With the Strait of Hormuz closed for nearly three months, LNG prices may surge by another 50%

汇通财经汇通财经2026/05/26 02:50
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```html(1) The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly completely closed for almost three months, blocking about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, yet it has not triggered extreme price surges, mainly due to weak off-season demand. However, analysts warn that if the strait remains largely closed, LNG prices could rise by a further 50% by August. Currently, LNG flows have shifted toward higher-paying Asian markets; US shipments originally destined for Europe have been rerouted to Asia.(2) High summer temperatures combined with the El Niño weather pattern are expected to push temperatures in East Asia (Japan, South Korea) above normal (about 1.5℃ higher in Japan, 0.5-1℃ higher in South Korea), boosting air conditioning demand and increasing power loads. Japan is facing intense heat, and spot electricity prices have soared to their highest level since 2022, which could significantly boost its flexible LNG procurement. Additionally, El Niño will cause drought in India and reduced hydropower in South America, further increasing LNG demand.(3) Europe’s situation is far from optimistic: hydropower water levels are low, and declining river levels are affecting nuclear power generation, creating enormous pressure for stockpiling before winter. An executive from Equinor warned that there is simply not enough physical natural gas; every day the conflict continues, the situation becomes more critical. If Asian demand continues to recover, Europe will face an even fiercer battle for LNG, and prices may spike sharply.```
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