Bitunix Analyst: Holicuz's "Talk and Shoot" Tactic, Market Begins to Realize True Uncertainty Never Went Away

BlockBeats News, May 26th: Despite the ongoing optimistic expectations for the "US-Iran Possible Agreement," the global market saw another military conflict near the Strait of Hormuz. This represents that the current situation in the Middle East is still in a stage of "simultaneous negotiation, gaming, and pressure." The US military confirmed a "self-defense strike" on Iranian missile facilities and mine-laying ships, while Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire agreement, indicating a significant gap between the so-called peace framework and actual stability.

The current key focus of the market is whether the Strait of Hormuz can truly return to normal operation. Although several media outlets have started to expose the draft agreement, including arrangements such as resuming navigation within 30 days, easing Iran's oil export restrictions, partial unfreezing of overseas assets, and extending the ceasefire by 60 days, Iran and the US have not yet fully agreed on nuclear enrichment, sanctions relief, and control of the strait. This is why the market's attitude toward the peace agreement is showing signs of fatigue, and even a "boy who cried wolf" reaction is emerging.

In terms of asset performance, oil prices rebounded after a rapid decline, and US Treasury yields rose again after falling during the Asia session, indicating that although funds are temporarily betting on a de-escalation of the conflict, they still remain highly vigilant about Middle East risks and global inflation pressure. Especially if the Strait of Hormuz cannot fully resume normal shipping, energy and supply chain pressures will continue to constrain the policy space of global central banks.

A deeper issue is that the market is beginning to gradually accept one thing — even if the war eventually cools down, the high-interest rate environment may not end quickly. Recently, officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have remained hawkish, coupled with the market repricing rate hike expectations, indicating that global funds no longer fully believe in the "central banks will always rescue the market" narrative.

In the crypto market, BTC has remained volatile recently. Looking at the liquidation heat map, there is still a significant amount of short liquidation liquidity near $78,000 to $78,200, while there is a noticeable concentration of long liquidations near $75,500 and $74,200. This indicates that the current market structure still leans towards high-leverage tug-of-war, and funds have not truly formed a consensus on a one-sided trend.

Until macro uncertainty is resolved, the short-term crypto market still tends to be more of a highly sensitive reactor to global liquidity and risk appetite, rather than an independent trend. Especially when the market begins to doubt whether "policies still have the ability to completely stabilize the market," a high-volatility environment may just be getting started.