Wintermute: Bitcoin key support level is in the $75,000-$76,000 range, market structure has not completely turned bearish

BlockBeats News, May 26—Wintermute posted that the macro environment improved noticeably last week: Brent crude oil plunged 9% due to easing tensions with Iran, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 4.50%, and US stocks rose for the eighth consecutive week, hitting historic highs, with inflation pressures from energy somewhat easing. However, consumer-level concerns persist: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a historic low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, May's manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high and input costs reached their highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in goods inflation. The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes also sent the signal that "if inflation remains stubborn, policy could be tightened further," and the market has not fully priced in a more hawkish outlook.

In the tech sector, Nvidia delivered an “explosive” earnings report: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year, with data center business growing 92%, and announced an $80 billion buyback alongside a 25x increase in dividends. More crucially, its Q2 guidance has already factored in zero revenue from China’s data centers, implying actual AI demand is even stronger. Yet, the market’s reaction was unusually muted, with after-hours share price almost unchanged—a sign that AI trades have entered a “perfect pricing” phase, where simply beating expectations is no longer enough to drive prices higher. This is an important warning for risk assets, including the crypto market—if AI momentum weakens, weak consumption, sticky inflation, and a potentially hawkish Fed will once again dominate the market narrative.

Compared to the strong US stock market, the crypto market has clearly lagged. BTC is hovering around $76,000, ETH has fallen to $2,140, and neither has followed other risk assets upward. Over the past two weeks, BTC spot ETF outflows have totaled more than $2 billion, with institutional capital clearly cooling, and marginal risk appetite returning to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to weaken and has hit a 10-month low, while among the few assets showing contrarian strength is HYPE: its single-day ETF inflow hit a record $25.5 million, with signs of consistent large institutional wallet accumulation. The current market structure has not entirely turned negative—long-term holders are still accumulating and exchange reserves remain low—but short-term price action is turning negative due to capital flows. The key support range for BTC is currently $75,000 to $76,000. If this is lost, the market could quickly retest the $70,000–$72,000 area; if it holds, there remains a chance to retest $80,000.