CaiXin Futures: Most agricultural products show weak performance, while soybean meal maintains a sell-on-rally strategy

⑴ Oils and Fats: Mainly fluctuating. The prices of the three major oils continue to weaken, and long positions are showing a tendency to exit when prices are high. Currently, the fundamentals of the spot market are weak, and long-dated themes are unable to sustainably drive the near-month market. The nearby months are suppressed by real bearish factors, while the distant months are supported by policy-driven increases and weather expectations. In the spot market, palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong) spot price increased by 110 yuan to 9,390 yuan, soybean oil up by 20 yuan to 8,710 yuan, and rapeseed oil up by 40 yuan to 10,060 yuan.⑵ Soybean Meal: Mainly sell on highs or arbitrage position entry. Internationally, the White House announced relevant purchasing commitments boosting the export prospects for US soybeans, but US soybean planting progress has reached 67%, higher than last year’s 63%, and favorable weather has exerted some pressure on US soybean futures’ upward movement. Domestically, the pressure from incoming imported soybeans continues to be released, crushing plant operating rates have rebounded, and soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. On the demand side, pig farming is deeply lossmaking, and feed enterprises are mainly restocking for just-in-time needs, so the domestic market remains characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In terms of operations, continue to follow a sell-on-highs strategy.⑶ Corn: Mainly sell on highs. Recently, the main corn contract has fluctuated at a high level. With the new wheat harvest approaching, some grain traders are clearing storage, and in recent days corn shipments have increased, but downstream demand remains lackluster, and overall market transactions are flat. Against a backdrop of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals are turning bearish, coupled with recent rumors of rice auctions, which have further exacerbated the bearish movement in both corn futures and spot prices.⑷ Live Hogs: Arbitrage position entry. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on live hog capacity control, emphasizing strict implementation of capacity reduction measures and will send working groups to promote enforcement, causing short positions to exit and prices to rise in the afternoon session. In the spot market, live hog spot prices have recently been mainly fluctuating, supply pressure persists, demand is weak, the pace of capacity reduction is slow, the previous influx of secondary finishing was relatively large, and future supply pressure may still be released in a concentrated manner. It is recommended to temporarily avoid maintaining naked short positions. As for arbitrage, weak fundamentals continue, combined with expectations for capacity reduction in distant months due to policy, so consider entering arbitrage positions on rebounds.⑸ Eggs: Mainly waiting and observing. Over the weekend, spot egg prices retreated somewhat. On one hand, continuous increases in egg prices have led to some resistance from end consumers; on the other hand, low restocking enthusiasm across the supply chain during the plum rain season has also put pressure on unit prices. Looking ahead, the number of laying hens in June may recover somewhat, with increased supply and average demand possibly causing egg prices to retreat moderately. It is recommended to wait and observe for now.