Everbright Futures 0527 Gold Review: US-Iran Tensions Flare Up Again, Hawkish Voice from Waller Persists, Gold Price Remains Cautious in the Short Term

Overnight, COMEX gold first fluctuated weakly, then rebounded slightly, with the overall trend still showing a tug-of-war pattern.

Geopolitical issues were the main source of volatility in yesterday's market. Previously, the market had some expectations for US-Iran negotiations, but after a brief period of easing, the situation quickly reversed. According to media reports, Iran opened fire on US fighter jets and several drones entering Iranian airspace in the Persian Gulf region, causing market concerns about the passive failure of the ceasefire agreement to rapidly intensify. As a result, both the US Dollar Index and crude oil prices rebounded, while gold came under pressure and fell. This suggests that the foundation of the current US-Iran negotiations remains fragile, and core disagreements between the two sides have not been resolved. Any unexpected friction could disrupt negotiation progress, which is also an important reason for recent repeated gold price swings.

Meanwhile, the first official speech by the new Federal Reserve Chair, Walsh, poured cold water on market expectations. His remarks were overall hawkish, raising widespread concern that even if there is a breakthrough in US-Iran talks and a reduction in geopolitical risks, it may not necessarily prompt the Federal Reserve to shift toward a dovish policy stance. In other words, if tensions do ease, the market focus will quickly shift to the Fed's policy guidance, at which point Walsh's statements will become the new factor influencing gold prices. Therefore, regardless of how US-Iran relations evolve, gold is unlikely to perform strongly under these dual pressures.

In summary, it is advisable to remain cautious about gold's short-term performance. While the long-term bullish outlook remains intact and the strategy of buying on dips has not changed, expectations for gold prices in the first half of the year should be tempered, as there are still many short-term disruptive factors. The market may remain volatile, so it is best to avoid chasing prices in times of high uncertainty.

Source: Everbright Futures Research Institute

Author: Yao Tao

Professional Qualification: F3082336

Trading Advisory License: Z0018553

Editor: Zhu Henan