Bitunix Analyst: Temporary Restoration of Hormuz Shipping; Market's Real Concern Is the "Global Liquidity Shock After Ceasefire Failure"
BlockBeats News, May 27 — On the surface, the market is trading on the cooling of tensions in the Middle East and the gradual resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but in reality, capital anxiety over war, energy, and global liquidity has not truly subsided. In the past 24 hours, about 4 million barrels of unsanctioned crude oil have crossed the Strait of Hormuz again, indicating some normalization in energy transport. However, military friction between the US and Iran continues to erupt near the strait, showing that the situation is still in an extremely fragile "limited ceasefire" phase.
The biggest problem now is not simply whether the war will end, but that even if an agreement is reached, the risks in the Middle East may continue to impact global energy, inflation, and interest rates for months or even longer. This is why the market's reaction to peace news has recently grown more subdued. From Iran's demand to unfreeze $24 billion in overseas funds, to the US insisting on handling the issue of highly enriched uranium and sanctions, there remains a huge gap in core interests between both sides, and the market is still highly skeptical of a "true comprehensive reconciliation."
On the other hand, while energy prices have retreated from wartime highs, the market is increasingly accepting that even with the resumed navigation of Hormuz, the energy supply chain and inflationary pressures will not instantly return to prewar conditions.
Asset performance is also starting to reflect this contradictory sentiment. On one hand, US stock AI and technology shares continue to push up risk asset valuations, with Micron's year-to-date gains even exceeding 200%. On the other hand, risks in gold exports, bauxite regulation, and energy supply are rising again, indicating intensified global supply chain and resource competition. Currently, the market is actually trading simultaneously along two main threads: "AI capital expenditure expansion" and "global resource re-inflation."
In the crypto market, the liquidation heatmap shows that a large amount of short liquidity is piling up near 78,000 to 78,200 for BTC, while there are clear long liquidation bands near 75,500 and 74,800; for ETH, a significant amount of short liquidity is accumulating around 2,150, and a short-term critical support zone has formed near 2,050. This indicates the market is still in a typical "news-driven + high leverage game" structure; any sharp movements in Middle East tensions, interest rate expectations, or energy prices could quickly trigger chain liquidations.
Overall, the biggest risk in the global market right now is no longer just the war itself, but the coexistence of "high valuation, high interest rate, and high geopolitical risk" for global assets.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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