Institutional Warning: Market Does Not Believe in Trump's "Peace Agreement," may lead to Prolonged Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
BlockBeats News, May 27th - Piper Sandler's latest report points out that the market's optimistic expectations for a U.S.-Iran agreement lack basis. The Strait of Hormuz may remain largely closed in the coming months, possibly leading to new highs in oil prices this summer.
The agency stated that there is little belief that shipping through the strait will recover to pre-war levels in the next few weeks, and they believe the supply shortage will continue to drive up energy prices. Meanwhile, the recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets and Iran's warning that passage through the strait "will come at a cost" further exacerbate market uncertainty.
President of S&P Global Platts, Dave Ernsberger, also mentioned that the market is currently "afraid to take on crude oil positions" due to the extreme confusion surrounding the negotiations, strait opening, and potential toll mechanisms.
Reports indicate that the market is also concerned about Iran potentially imposing a "passage fee" on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the future. Although Iranian officials deny the existence of a "fee," they emphasize that strait navigation and ecological protection "will come at a cost."
Industry insiders estimate that even if an opening agreement is reached in the future, global crude oil transportation returning to normal may take several months or even a year, and market volatility and the risk of high oil prices will persist.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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