"Prophet of Bubbles": Wall Street Will Never Tell You When to Exit—AI Saved the Market Once, but US Stocks May Face a Decade of Stagnation

格隆汇2026/05/27 11:00

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格隆汇 May 27｜Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham was interviewed by renowned investment research and training institution Behind the Balance Sheet on May 25. The “bubble prophet,” who has experienced the 1973 stock crash and accurately predicted the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the 2008 subprime crisis, frankly stated that the emergence of AI has not only changed the game but also completely reversed the market's downward trend. Driven by the AI narrative, the stock prices of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants have doubled, ultimately pushing the entire market to new highs. However, beneath the celebration lies extreme valuation risk. Grantham warns: Historically, after such a great market top, what follows is always the worst period—so don’t delude yourself.On Wall Street, institutions rarely issue warnings about such bubbles. All major asset management companies, such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, will never tell you to exit the market. If you make a wrong prediction, clients’ patience is often shorter than the uncertainty of the cycle, and you will be fired before you have a chance to prove yourself right. This is why individual investors are always led to believe that everything is fine no matter how high the market goes.Regarding when the bubble will burst, Grantham uses a vivid metaphor to describe the difficulty and inevitability of prediction: It's like scattering a bag of feathers from a high-rise in Florida during a hurricane. Some feathers land a block away within half a minute, others are swept off to Maine. In the short term, you know nothing, but you know the long-term result—sooner or later, every feather will touch the ground.Grantham believes that over the next ten-year cycle, the US market is likely to underperform emerging markets and developed markets outside the US: “The US may be facing a decade-long decline (relative underperformance).” Grantham reveals: Of course, US stocks will rebound, but I think they may be facing a decade-long recession. When asked where the S&P 500 would fall if it eventually bursts, Grantham said bluntly: The trend will at least be cut in half. All great bubbles see a decline of more than 50%.

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智通财经•2026/10/09 12:23

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Bitget•2026/10/09 12:07