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Capital Economics: Concerns over global inflation and tightening cycles triggered by the Iran conflict are excessive

Capital Economics: Concerns over global inflation and tightening cycles triggered by the Iran conflict are excessive

汇通财经汇通财经2026/05/27 11:33
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(1) Capital Economics economists point out that concerns about the Iran conflict triggering a sustained rebound in inflation and initiating a global tightening cycle appear to be overstated. (2) Although inflation in developed economies is expected to rise to 3% to 4%, the softening labor market, weakening fiscal support, and relatively high starting interest rates mean that the risk of persistent “second-round effects” in inflation is lower than in 2022–2023; many policymakers tend to disregard temporary inflationary rises driven by energy factors. (3) Stagflation would only occur in the extreme scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an extended period and critical infrastructure is severely damaged; in that case, high energy prices and shortages of goods could force central banks to raise interest rates again, until economic growth slows by 2027, prompting a policy shift.
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