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Caixin Futures: Nonferrous and new energy metals broadly fluctuated, spot lithium carbonate drops to 175,450 CNY/ton

Caixin Futures: Nonferrous and new energy metals broadly fluctuated, spot lithium carbonate drops to 175,450 CNY/ton

汇通财经汇通财经2026/05/27 12:43
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⑴ On the macro front, the renewed tensions between the US and Iran and the inflationary shockwaves triggered by Middle East conflicts may persist, amplifying market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation for spot copper has marginally improved, but high-quality copper remains in short supply. High copper prices are dampening downstream purchasing interest, with most companies replenishing stocks only as needed. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern.⑵ The macro situation is equally affected by US-Iran tensions and expectations of rate hikes. On the fundamentals side, the overseas supply gap and low inventories continue to provide support at the bottom, while the ongoing domestic inventory build-up beyond expectations will exert downward pressure on domestic aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.⑶ The macro outlook is influenced by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate hikes. Disruptions at the mine end have kept overseas processing fees at low levels, with smelters showing very little production willingness. The strong expectation of supply contraction offers substantial support at the bottom, but demand-side consumption remains poor. Zinc prices are expected to maintain volatility in the short term.⑷ As US-Iran tensions flare up again, the seesaw effect between crude oil and precious metals has caused precious metal prices to decline continuously. Given the considerable uncertainty that remains regarding Middle East conflicts and persistent expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, gold and silver prices are unlikely to rebound significantly and are expected to remain weak and volatile.⑸ Lithium prices continue to trend lower, with the previous rebound to 200,000 yuan/ton mainly supported by tightened lithium supply from Jiangxi, tight overseas shipment of lithium, and strong downstream demand. Now, market logic has shifted: lithium carbonate shipments from Chile, Argentina, and other regions remain high, and Zimbabwean lithium arriving at ports after July further increases supply. Marginal supply and demand are turning more relaxed, and medium-term supply surplus expectations continue to weigh on the market. Downstream purchasing interest is sluggish, spot prices keep falling, and futures are showing a deep discount. Market open interest is declining and capital is continuously flowing out, with no clear right-side bottoming opportunity at this stage. Today, battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price fell by 1,850 yuan to 175,450 yuan/ton.
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