Caixin Futures: Energy and chemical products weaken at highs; crude oil remains weak and volatile
- Crude Oil: Oscillating with a slight weakening trend. Recently, continuous news has been released that the US-Iran negotiations have reached certain consensus. The latest statement from Iranian officials indicates that, according to a preliminary agreement draft, the US will cease fire on all fronts for 60 days, though core issues remain unresolved. Geopolitical tensions are developing towards an easing direction, and prices are expected to oscillate with a slight weakening bias. As prices have shown a gradually weaker reaction to bullish factors, if oil-related contracts spike sharply again, chasing the high is not advisable.
- Fuel Oil: Turning weaker at high levels. During the Middle East conflict, oil-producing countries reduced output, and domestic high-sulfur fuel oil remains highly dependent on imports. US-Iran negotiations are in a stalemate, but might develop towards an easing in the future. Waiting for a rebound to resistance level and trying a small short position upon stagnation may be worth considering.
- Asphalt: Turning weaker at high levels. Today the price for Shandong 70# heavy traffic asphalt is 4,370 yuan/ton, flat from the previous period. In June, total domestic asphalt production at local refineries is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons month-on-month, down 28.5%. At the beginning of this week, combined inventory at 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 888,000 tons, down 1.3% from May 21; 104 social warehouses held 1.442 million tons, down 1.7% from May 21 and 23.2% lower year-on-year. Overall, both supply and demand are weak, and asphalt may mainly follow cost-side oscillations.
- Glass: Rebound space may be limited. Today, outgoing shipments from enterprises in North China have improved compared to previous days, and prices are stable. Current industry daily output is 146,900 tons. Upstream inventory last week increased by 44,000 heavy boxes, up 0.06% week-on-week, and up 12.82% year-on-year. Low supply maintains certain support for prices, while energy price increases drive up costs. A short-term weak rebound is possible, but mid-term supply-demand pressure persists and upside is relatively cautious.
- Soda Ash: Rebound space may be limited. Today, the domestic soda ash market is steady and oscillating, with no significant price fluctuations. Corporate operations are being adjusted; the second plant of Jinshan in Henan is undergoing maintenance, leading to a decline in output. Downstream demand remains lukewarm, with stockpiling as needed. On Monday, total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,701,000 tons, down 75,000 tons from last Thursday, a decrease of 4.22%. Given that coal costs remain high and many soda ash manufacturers are under maintenance, short-term prices may oscillate and rebound, but mid-term high supply and weak demand are hard to change, so upside is limited.
- Caustic Soda: Oscillating with a weak bias. Today, mainstream prices for liquid caustic soda in Shandong are stable. Prices in Southwest Shandong and Central-Eastern Shandong are mixed. Recently, there have been more companies in Shandong undergoing maintenance and production cuts, and supply has clearly decreased.
- Methanol: Turning weaker at high levels. Today, Taicang spot price is 3,125 (-40); price in the North Line of Inner Mongolia is 2,675 (-5). Today, futures continued weak consolidation; trading on the coastal market was average. Recently, the progress in geopolitical negotiations has caused clear corrections in crude oil and other bulk commodity markets, weakening sentiment for methanol. This week’s data shows port inventory is down 73,500 tons (down 9.99% week-on-week), and manufacturer inventory is 343,500 tons, a decline of 20,700 tons or 5.68% week-on-week. However, with increasing news on US-Iran negotiations, the methanol market may oscillate with a slight weakening bias.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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