Caixin Futures: Most agricultural products show weak performance; maintain a sell-on-rise strategy for soybean meal
- Oils and fats: Mainly fluctuating. Recent rainfall conditions are insufficient to support weather-driven speculation, and the fundamentals in the spot market remain weak. Far-month factors are unable to sustain near-month market trends. In Indonesia, overall rainfall is suitable for palm fruit growth; Malaysia Peninsula's dry weather benefits oil yield, while heavy rainfall in East Malaysia hampers harvesting; strong rainfall in southern Thailand has a slight impact on rubber and palm production. In the spot market, Guangdong’s 24-degree palm oil rose by 30 yuan to 9,420 yuan; soybean oil increased by 10 yuan to 8,720 yuan; rapeseed oil rose by 20 yuan to 10,080 yuan.
- Soybean meal: Mainly short at high levels or enter with arbitrage. Internationally, relevant procurement commitments boost expectations for U.S. soybean exports. The U.S. soybean planting progress has reached 67%, higher than last year's 63% for the same period. Favorable weather conditions exert some pressure on U.S. soybean futures prices. Domestically, continued pressure builds as imported soybean arrivals increase, oil mills’ operating rates recover, and soybean meal inventories accumulate further. On the demand side, pig farming is experiencing deep losses, and feed enterprises are mainly replenishing stocks for rigid demand, keeping the domestic strong supply and weak demand pattern unchanged. Maintain a short-on-high strategy on operations.
- Corn: Mainly short at high levels. The main corn contracts have recently fluctuated at high levels. As new wheat is about to come onto the market, some grain traders have cleared storage, increasing shipments, but downstream demand remains weak. Market trading is flat, and against a backdrop of strong supply and weak demand, fundamentals are bearish. Combined with recent rumors of rice auctions, corn futures and spot prices are running even more bearish.
- Live hogs: Enter with arbitrage. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on live hog production capacity regulation, emphasizing strict implementation of capacity reduction measures and sending work teams to drive them. This caused shorts to exit and pushed the afternoon market higher. In the spot market, live hog spot prices have mainly fluctuated recently, with supply pressure still present, weak demand, slow pace of capacity reduction, earlier second-phase pig breeding entering with a larger scale, and subsequent concentrated release of supply pressure possible. It is recommended not to maintain naked short positions for now. In terms of arbitrage, weak reality continues, and with far-month policy expectations of production capacity reduction, one may enter arbitrage when prices rebound at high levels.
- Eggs: Mainly wait-and-see. Over the weekend, egg spot prices adjusted downward because after continuous increases, end consumers resisted higher prices. Low stocking enthusiasm in all links during the rainy season also placed pressure on unit prices. Looking ahead, the number of laying hens in production may recover somewhat in June, and increased supply with flat demand could result in egg prices adjusting downward; it is recommended to mainly remain on the sidelines for now.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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