Preview of $69 billion U.S. 4-month Treasury bill auction: Slightly expensive forward roll suppresses bids, September SOFR futures imply an 80% probability of a rate hike
- The US Treasury will issue $69 billion WI 4-month Treasury bills, maturing on September 29. Last week's auction yield for comparable Treasury bills was 3.59%, while the current buying quote is 3.625%. The WI 4-month buying quote is 3.63%, and the forward roll is 0.6 basis points, slightly above fair value. This relatively expensive level is expected to dampen bidding demand.
- The butterfly spread between the 2-month, WI 4-month, and 6-month Treasury bills is 1.7 basis points, widening by 1.8 basis points compared to last week. The three-month fluctuation range for this butterfly spread is from minus 1 basis point to plus 2.5 basis points, currently at the wider end of the range.
- The September Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures currently trade at an implied rate of 3.75%, with pricing reflecting an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. Against this backdrop, the strategy of shorting the September contract and buying WI 4-month Treasury bills is not attractive. The average bid-to-cover ratio for the last six 4-month Treasury bill auctions was 3.07, with indirect bidders accounting for 53.14%.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
3 Best Crypto Stocks with 120%+ Upside, According to Analysts
Interpretation - What is the low-frequency spectrum obtained by SpaceX for Starlink Mobile?
Harshita Mary Varghese, Reuters, October 9 - SpaceX SPCX.O has agreed to acquire a portfolio of low-band spectrum licenses covering the entire United States, in a deal reportedly valued at $8 billion. The company is seeking to expand its business beyond satellite internet and become a major competitor in the U.S. mobile market. SpaceX revealed its plans to enter the mobile service sector during its first earnings call in August. This announcement briefly weighed on the company’s stock price, and shares of the three major U.S. wireless carriers—AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon—were also affected as investors assessed the potential competitive threat. What is low-band spectrum? Low-band spectrum refers to radio waves that travel further and penetrate buildings better compared to higher frequencies, making them suitable for wide-area mobile network coverage. In contrast, mid-band and high-band spectrums can transmit more data at faster speeds but have a smaller coverage area. SpaceX has agreed to purchase up to 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz low-band spectrum licenses from Grain Management and plans to develop a hybrid architecture for Starlink Mobile, combining terrestrial infrastructure with satellite connectivity. How is the U.S. spectrum licensing system structured? Commercial spectrum is a scarce resource in the U.S., regulated by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which typically allocates licenses for specific frequencies and geographic areas via auctions or other authorization processes. License holders must comply with technical rules and deployment requirements, and transfers of licenses usually require regulatory approval before obligations are fulfilled. The spectrum license deal recently struck by SpaceX is pending FCC approval. Which low-band spectrum do the three major carriers hold? AT&T’s low-band spectrum includes the 700 MHz and 850 MHz bands, as well as 600 MHz spectrum licenses acquired this July through the purchase of EchoStar. Verizon holds spectrum in the 700 MHz and 850 MHz bands, while T-Mobile’s low-band holdings include 600 MHz and 700 MHz spectrum. What are the plans for STARLINK MOBILE? The company plans to integrate these spectrum licenses into its next-generation satellite system, while also deploying terrestrial radio equipment and antennas on communication towers and rooftops. The FCC this week approved Starlink Mobile’s application for its second-generation (Gen2) satellite constellation, authorizing SpaceX to launch 15,000 satellites globally optimized for the 2 GHz spectrum.

Japanese Yen: Choppy trade inside defined range – UOB
