US 10-year Treasury rebounded by 22 basis points but faced resistance; oil prices rebound, yen weakens which may trigger sell-off to return, with 4.6% as the next hurdle for the Federal Reserve
- U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield falling a total of 22 basis points from its recent peak, though overnight gains were negligible. Rebounding oil prices and a weakening Japanese yen are exerting new pressure on the bond market. The yen is hovering near its lowest level since late April, a point that previously triggered official intervention by Japan. Institutional data shows the market is still betting on a roughly 70% chance that the Bank of Japan will hike rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting. The rebound in Japanese bonds has stalled or even shown signs of reversal, which could push U.S. Treasury yields back up.
- Crude oil futures appear to be nearing the formation of a short-term bottom. If tensions persist, inventories continue to decline, and idle production capacity erodes further, the energy market may be forced to aggressively reprice the risk to remaining supply. This increases the likelihood that oil prices will rise to $120–$150 per barrel, quickly reviving inflation concerns and exerting new upward pressure on global yields. The market may be underestimating the reality that the so-called peace process increasingly resembles a delaying tactic rather than a true solution. Iran is highly unlikely to make concessions on uranium enrichment or restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and core geopolitical risk points remain unresolved.
- The daily chart for the 10-year yield shows the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 4.47%, with the 4.43% region forming strong support. After the yield broke out upwards from an extremely narrow Bollinger Band width, a natural short-covering rally pushed the 10-year yield to the middle line. Without a genuine peace agreement and with core PCE rising 0.4% month-on-month on Thursday, yields may quickly move up towards 4.60%. Tactically, a two-way range trading mindset remains, but there is a bias towards selling on rebounds, targeting a trading range of 4.50% to 4.46% for the 10-year yield.
- The European Central Bank, in its semi-annual review, warned that the Iran conflict could trigger a series of global financial crises. The increasing uncertainty of U.S. government commitments to multilateral cooperation has heightened the risk of policy shocks disrupting international order. More persistent energy supply interruptions and significantly weaker economic growth could prompt markets to reassess sovereign risk, while the presence of price-sensitive investors such as hedge funds in the eurozone sovereign bond market could amplify any sudden repricing of sovereign risk.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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