Middle East conflict pushes aluminum prices up by over 30%, U.S. solar industry’s 500 GW installation may cost an extra $5 billion
- Due to the damage to refinery facilities in the Gulf region caused by the Iran war and the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the benchmark aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange has risen by 15% since the end of February, while COMEX aluminum futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have increased by over 30%. According to data from the US Geological Survey, in 2025, the US will import over 5 million tons of aluminum, with Canada supplying more than half, and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain together accounting for 12%.
- Aluminum is a key raw material for the rails, clamps, and supports in solar mounting systems. The CEO of SEG Solar stated that the price of solar project mounting systems has already increased by about 20%, and some projects with thin profit margins may be forced to cancel. For 500-watt modules, the aluminum frame typically accounts for about $10 of the cost per module, and under supply constraints, this will rise by 50% to $15 per module. Calculated based on 500 GW of installed capacity, this means an added cost of $5 billion.
- The US Energy Information Administration expects that in 2026, developers will add 43.4 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity, up 60% compared to last year. Experts indicate that even a slight increase in the cost per watt will be significantly amplified when it comes to large-scale installation. It is expected that the cost increases in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 will be passed on to commercial end users, including utility-scale developers, office buildings, data centers, and factories.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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