TTF closes flat before turning lower as Iran rumors stir the market; Thursday’s outlook is bullish up to 47 euros

⑴ The near-month Europe TTF natural gas contract closed at 45.90 euros/MWh on Wednesday, down 1.06 euros/MWh from the previous day. The system balance was relatively loose, and prices came under pressure during the session amid rumors that Iran had agreed to a US peace agreement draft; however, this information has not been confirmed and was driven by market speculation. ⑵ The premium of the TTF near-month contract over the NBP near-month contract widened from 1.39 euros/MWh the previous day to 2.15 euros/MWh. ⑶ Fundamentals remain relatively bearish, with non-LDZ demand down by 100 GWh/day and LDZ demand further decreasing by 29 GWh/day. ⑷ Iran launched a retaliatory attack on a US military base, and the risk of a ceasefire collapse between the two sides has increased. Prices are expected to react bullishly on Thursday, with the TTF near-month contract seen fluctuating between 45.90 and 47.00 euros/MWh. ⑸ Overall, the market will remain highly sensitive to Middle East headlines, while relatively soft fundamentals may limit the upside potential of the TTF near-month contract.