Brazilian Central Bank director: Monetary policy is more effective than a year ago, household debt is rising but remains under control, and under no circumstances will the Iran conflict be allowed to translate into inflation.
- The Central Bank of Brazil's Director of Monetary Policy, Davi David, stated that monetary policy is affecting household debt, which is one of the expected transmission channels. Household debt is trending higher but remains under control, and the economy’s sensitivity to monetary policy has increased. The current effectiveness of monetary policy is stronger than it was a year ago.
- Short-term inflation expectations mainly reflect price changes and supply shocks, but they may also spill over into subsequent years. The Central Bank is closely monitoring the risk of de-anchoring in long-term inflation expectations and will not allow higher expectations to turn into actual inflation, pursuing a 3% inflation target.
- Regarding 2028 inflation, the Central Bank has every tool, capacity, and legal responsibility to pursue the target. If expectations for 2028 are impacted, this implies that the market believes the Central Bank might not fulfill the inflation target, but the Central Bank will deliver on its commitment.
- The Brazilian real has performed unusually over the past 12 months, appreciating and displaying low volatility amid Trump tariff comments and Middle East conflicts. Some GDP growth will result from the oil shock but will not flow into consumption; households will bear the cost of shocks, including higher fuel prices. Following the end of the easing cycle, the goal is to maintain a restrictive interest rate to ensure inflation converges to target levels.
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