Improved risk sentiment supports the Australian dollar, while rate hike expectations drive the New Zealand dollar to a two-week high

汇通财经2026/05/29 02:45

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1. On Friday, both the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar shook off recent selling pressure. The market reacted positively to news that a ceasefire in the Middle East might be extended, causing oil prices to retreat and boosting global risk assets overall. The Australian dollar is currently trading near 0.7158 against the US dollar, holding onto most of Thursday’s gains. The New Zealand dollar continued its upward trend, rising as much as 0.37% to 0.5955, marking a new high since May 13.2. According to reports, the draft agreement to extend the ceasefire includes provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This news has encouraged investors, but the practicality of such arrangements remains to be seen.3. The mere possibility of reaching an agreement was enough to push the Australian dollar from an overnight low of 0.7098 dollars back up to about 0.7160 dollars. The Australian dollar has climbed approximately 0.5% this week, but has yet to overcome resistance near 0.7182 dollars.4. Supported by expectations of rate hikes, the New Zealand dollar performed even more strongly, gaining 1.7% over three trading days and is poised to retest the May high of 0.5991 dollars. Large-scale short covering in the Australian dollar also provided extra support for the New Zealand dollar. The AUD/NZD exchange rate dropped to a six-week low of 1.2026 NZD, well below the week’s high of 1.2284 NZD.6. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated on Wednesday that rates may soon be raised to address inflation pressures caused by energy prices. The market now estimates the chance of a rate hike in July at 80%, and expects rates to reach 3.0% by year-end, with a peak forecast at around 3.50%.7. Economists from Citi and Goldman Sachs believe the neutral rate lies between 2.50% and 2.75%, so they expect only two hikes in total. Meanwhile, economists at Westpac forecast the first rate hike may not occur until September, but in the long term, the central bank will have to raise rates to higher levels.8. Westpac New Zealand Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold predicts rate hikes of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December, stating that rates must rise above 4% to control CPI inflation.9. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates to 4.35%. Recent employment and inflation data fell short of expectations, prompting investors to sharply lower the probability of a rate hike in June to only 5%. The market currently sees a 70% chance of a final rate hike to 4.60% this year, likely in the fourth quarter.

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Updated to market close Firmus, backed by Nvidia, cancels $5 billion IPO plan; tech stocks see their biggest weekly gain in a week; Benchmark index posts gains for the second consecutive week Jasmeen Ara Islam Shaikh, Reuters, October 9 – Australian stocks rose on Friday as bargain hunters bought shares after a recent benchmark pullback; at the same time, Firmus’s decision to shelve its $5 billion IPO plan triggered an inflow of funds into local software stocks. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 .AXJO rose 0.6% on Friday to close at 8,716.6 points after two consecutive days of declines. For the week, the index rose 0.4%, posting gains for a second straight week. Globally, comments from US President Trump that the US would pause strikes against Iran ahead of the November midterm elections provided a slight lift to market sentiment. Domestically in Australia, markets are closely watching September quarter inflation data to be released later this month, as well as awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last two policy meetings of the year in November and December. On the day, tech stocks .AXIJ jumped as much as 3.1% after data center operator Firmus, backed by Nvidia NVDA.O, called off its IPO due to lukewarm market response. Maas Group MGH.AX, a 3.2% shareholder in Firmus, resumed trading after a morning halt and saw its shares plunge as much as 10.7%. David Tuckwell, Chief Investment Officer at ETF Shares, said Firmus’s withdrawal was positive for local tech stocks as it kept fund managers’ money in existing listed shares and avoided forced rebalancing for index funds. He added that after extended selling, valuations in the sector were oversold and now operating on their own momentum. However, weak demand for Firmus indicated that investors preferred enterprises with solid performance, rather than shunning tech stocks entirely. WiseTech Global WTC.AX, Xero XRO.AX, and Life360 360.AX rose 4.2%, 3.5%, and 4.1% respectively. As gold prices edged up, gold miners .AXGD gained 1.9%, the sector's biggest gain in more than two weeks. GOL/ Weighed down by softer iron ore and copper prices, the overall mining index dipped 0.2%. IRONORE/ MET/L Financial stocks .AXFJ rebounded 0.5% after declines over the previous two sessions. Energy stocks .AXEJ edged higher by 0.2%, marking four straight gains despite weaker early oil prices. O/R Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index .NZ50 closed up 0.4% at 13,749.35 points. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several languages. Due to possible errors or omitted context in automated translations, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of such texts and provides them solely for reader convenience. Reuters accepts no liability for any damages or losses resulting from the use of automated translation features.) For more on "Schedules & Data": US earnings calendar RESF/US, Wall Street outlook for the week .N/O, Global economic outlook DATA/ ... See all the latest market headlines and breaking news at NEWS1.

路透社•2026/10/09 05:56