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National Australia Bank: US economic resilience may limit downside for the US dollar

National Australia Bank: US economic resilience may limit downside for the US dollar

汇通财经汇通财经2026/05/29 04:11
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1. Rodrigo Catril, Senior Foreign Exchange Strategist at National Australia Bank, stated that even if the United States and Iran ultimately reach a peace agreement, the resilience displayed by the US economy may still limit the extent of the US dollar's decline.2. He pointed out: “If a credible and more lasting peace agreement is reached, the US dollar may decline somewhat, as the global situation would improve, and lower energy prices would be a significant positive factor.”3. However, he also believes that following an initial boost in market sentiment, the influence of relative growth trends will gradually strengthen. “It has been proven that the United States is more resilient than other economies. If this situation persists, the US dollar's decline, as initially expected by the market, will be relatively limited.”4. Catril added that the New Zealand dollar performed strongly on Friday, mainly driven by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintaining a hawkish stance, more favorable survey data released that day, and the unwinding of long positions in the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar.
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