"BTC OG insider whale" agent: AI is absorbing liquidity from the crypto market, the next bull run still needs to wait for the cycle to return

BlockBeats reported that on May 29, Garrett Jin, the agent for the "BTC OG Insider Whale," published a post reviewing the ongoing three-month conflict between the US and Iran and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, sharing his views on oil, US stocks, gold, and the crypto market. He stated that the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed for three months, but the market impact has been less than expected. The US released strategic reserves and became the "last supplier," alleviating the crude oil supply gap. His team closed their crude oil positions for profit near the end of April.

Garrett believes that AI is changing the market pricing logic. Despite the continued Hormuz crisis, US stocks have decoupled from energy shocks, with chip stocks rising and improved corporate earnings offsetting oil price pressures. He noted that the AI sector still faces risks in the short term such as overvaluation and crowded positions, but in the long term, the cycles of computing power, energy, and data center construction are just beginning. Regarding gold, he believes that gold is not simply a war hedge asset; its main upward driver in recent years has been continuous central bank buying globally and de-dollarization demand. Gold, essentially, is a tool to hedge against the long-term depreciation risk of the US dollar.

For the crypto market, Garrett stated that the turning point appeared last October, when liquidity began to dry up and new capital contributions noticeably decreased. Some capital shifted to AI concept stocks, making the latter the new "crypto market." However, he believes that this is more of a cyclical bear market phase at present and there is no need to be overly pessimistic, but the next bull run will still require waiting for a new cycle to arrive.