Federal Reserve's Paulson: Monetary Policy is Moderately Restrictive and at an Appropriate Level

(1) Analysis: Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico are supporting a supply risk premium; however, signals of dialogue between the US and Iran are limiting further upside in oil prices, which are currently still in a low-level consolidation phase, mainly awaiting a stress test. (2) Key Focus: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US dollar index, global crude oil supply, and OPEC+ policy. (3) Resistance: 91.00, 91.50, 92.00 (4) Support: 90.00, 89.00, 88.00

Reason for analysis: Spot gold rebounded near a two-month low, but the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that most officials believe it may continue to raise interest rates this year. The strengthening of the US dollar and high US Treasury yields still exert pressure. The easing of tensions between the US and Iran has reduced some safe-haven demand. After technical indicators became oversold in the short term, there was a corrective rebound, but a reversal has not yet occurred, so the range-bound strategy is maintained. Key focus: US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, geopolitical situation Resistance: 4200, 4230, 4270 Support: 4130, 4100, 4070

Shell (SHEL.US): The evacuation of the Appomattox, Mars, Ursa, Olympus, and Vito platforms has been completed.