Bank of England Governor Bailey: US-Iran Ceasefire Still Brings Uncertainty
On May 30, according to the Financial Times, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that even if a 60-day ceasefire is achieved in the conflict between the US and Iran, it will still bring uncertainty and will not immediately pave the way for interest rate cuts. Bailey stated that a nearly completed agreement does not change his fundamental assessment of the risks this conflict poses to the UK economy. US officials had previously indicated that the agreement is close to being finalized. Bailey said, 'A 60-day ceasefire may be helpful, but it does not completely resolve the issue.' He also noted that such an agreement 'will still bring uncertainty, leaving unclear what will happen after 60 days.' Furthermore, Bailey mentioned that he has not completely abandoned the hypothetical scenario where energy prices fall rapidly but do not impact core inflation. However, to prompt the central bank to cut rates in such a scenario, 'you must have stronger confidence' that this shock will not last too long.
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