Ten minutes after the market opened, the world quieted down

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

The global markets opened on Monday, surviving a heart-stopping first hour:

- Gold gapped lower at the open, while US futures fell sharply, but afterwards both recovered their losses;

- Oil prices gapped higher, but the rally was capped by technical resistance, giving other markets some room to breathe;

- US Treasuries saw a modest uptick, with the 10-year yield still holding below the 4.45% level.

So far, all is well.

First, the opening moves reflected the lack of progress on the Iran issue. However, oil prices only rallied for 10 minutes before stalling, and gold prices only fell for 5 minutes before starting to rebound. Things quieted down after these “10 and 5 minutes,” as the market completed a “panic drop and recovery” loop in a very short time. Despite stalled negotiations, the overarching framework of a “60-day temporary ceasefire” has not been completely overturned. Plus, with oil hitting technical resistance, no one dares to act rashly.

Second, today’s second risk point comes in the evening, when Iran-related news is highly likely to emerge. No news will be seen as bad news by the market. US-Iran negotiations remain unresolved and are a potential source of future volatility. The risk is that Trump keeps pushing the narrative that a deal is imminent, misleading market sentiment, yet so far Iran remains silent on the matter.

According to a report by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency on Sunday, both sides continue to propose amendments to the agreement, but ultimately the US and Iran may both reject these changes, leading to the collapse of the deal.

Third, the events of the past two weeks can be summed up in one sentence: everyone is betting all their chips on “bad news not getting any worse.” The logic chain is simple—betting on the US and Iran eventually signing a deal, oil prices continuing to fall, and AI continuing to drive profit growth. It’s a beautiful logic chain. But that’s also where the problem lies—if any link in this chain falters, the basis for this round of market gains will be challenged.

Until the US and Iran officially sign the deal or break the table, give up the obsession with taking one-sided long or short positions.