Bitunix Analyst: Bond Pricing Reflects Rate Hikes Without Actual Increases, Energy Risks, Bond Revaluation, and Institutional Uncertainty Drive Up Global Funding Costs
On June 1, as the U.S. April PCE rose to 3.8% and core PCE remained high at 3.3%, several Federal Reserve officials continued to emphasize inflation risks. Even though the Fed has yet to take action, the bond market has already preemptively completed part of the tightening work. The market is beginning to accept a new reality—high interest rates may persist longer than previously expected, and the financial environment has already tightened in advance. The core driver of this repricing wave still stems from the situation in the Middle East. Despite Trump's claims that the U.S. and Iran have reached consensus on some issues, significant disagreements remain on core issues such as the nuclear program, uranium disposal, and jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran not only refuses to export enriched uranium but Congress is also preparing to push for a 'sovereign jurisdiction' plan over the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. military actions continue around the strait, with suspected mine s even appearing in Omani waters. This indicates that the comprehensive cooling expected by the market has not yet materialized, and energy supply risks remain unresolved. Consequently, the bond market is effectively performing the tightening work that should have been executed by monetary policy. Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have remained high, with the market even suggesting that 'the bond market has effectively raised rates by 75 basis points.' The simultaneous rise in yields from two-year to ten-year Treasuries indicates that corporate financing costs, mortgage rates, and capital costs have all significantly increased. This phenomenon implies that even if the Fed maintains interest rates, market funding costs continue to rise, and the global liquidity environment is effectively contracting passively. More pronounced divisions are also emerging within the Fed. Kashkari and Bowman believe that the price shocks caused by the war still need time to observe, while Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Kansas Fed President George argue that inflation issues existed long before the outbreak of the war and may even necessitate further tightening of policies. Additionally, the market is beginning to face another layer of risk—the issue of institutional trust. Former Fed Chair Powell has rarely publicly warned that if the government can dismiss Fed officials due to policy disagreements, the Fed's credibility will be fundamentally undermined. This controversy surrounding the independence of the Fed has, to some extent, transcended monetary policy itself and begun to affect global investors' assessments of the stability of U.S. institutions. In the cryptocurrency market, BTC is currently facing not just a risk appetite issue, but also a liquidity test brought about by the simultaneous rise in global funding costs. If this week’s non-farm payroll data is strong and yields approach 5%, the market will reassess the valuations of risk assets; conversely, if employment shows signs of cooling, it may alleviate market concerns about further tightening. At this stage, what truly dominates the market is no longer whether the Fed will raise rates, but whether the bond market has already preemptively achieved the effects of a rate hike.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
BRIEF-Veea Regains Full Compliance With Nasdaq Continued Listing Requirements
Oct 8 (Reuters) - Veea Inc VEEA.O: VEEA REGAINS FULL COMPLIANCE WITH NASDAQ CONTINUED LISTING REQUIREMENTS Source text: ID:nGNX9LhSKf Further company coverage: VEEA.O ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))
Exclusive Report – Sources say Refresco is planning an initial public offering (IPO) with a valuation of over 10 billions dollars.
According to sources, several banks have been competing for IPO underwriting business in recent weeks. The sources said the potential listing could take place in either the United States or Europe. KKR acquired Refresco for approximately $8 billion in 2022. Reuters New York, October 8 – According to informed sources, Netherlands-based Refresco and its parent company KKR have recently heard pitches from several investment banks regarding their potential roles in the IPO of Refresco, one of the world's largest independent beverage manufacturers. Sources, speaking anonymously, revealed that Refresco is exploring listing plans, possibly in either the US or Europe, and that regardless of the market, the company’s valuation could surpass $10 billion. They cautioned that the plans are at a preliminary stage and may change. KKR, an investment firm, acquired the company in 2022 for about $8 billion through its global infrastructure strategy, which focuses on investing in critical infrastructure assets. Other investments under this strategy include utilities, energy, and telecommunications service companies. Both Refresco and KKR declined to comment. Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Rotterdam, Netherlands, Refresco partners with retailers such as Walmart and Aldi to produce private label beverage products, and also collaborates with branded beverage companies like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Monster Beverage. Refresco claims to be the world’s largest independent beverage manufacturer, providing production, bottling, warehousing, logistics, and distribution services to partners. The company operates 85 production sites across North America, Europe, and Australia. According to its annual report, the company achieved nearly $7 billion in revenue and about $930 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Sources noted that although Coca-Cola Consolidated mainly collaborates with Coca-Cola, this North Carolina-based beverage manufacturer could still be a relevant comparable for Refresco. According to data provider LSEG, that company's market capitalization is around $12.5 billion, and its EBITDA multiple is close to 12 times. Dealogic data show that the US IPO market had a strong start this year, with traditional IPO funding approaching $140 billion so far, making 2026 likely to approach the record levels seen in 2021. However, market volatility, rising bond yields, rate hike concerns, and increasing questions over AI spending and valuations are threatening the once-expected bumper autumn IPO season. Several companies, including smart ring maker Oura, have postponed planned listings in recent weeks. Nevertheless, IPO advisors and investors say companies continue to hold pitches with investment banks to vie for underwriting spots—known as “beauty contests.” They are also continuing informal meetings with investors and other preparations to allow them to move quickly when market conditions improve. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into various languages. Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translations, and such translations are provided solely for reader convenience. Reuters accepts no liability for any damage or loss caused by use of the automated translation function.)
Raydium crypto surges 14% as negative funding raises short squeeze prospects
Bombardier Opens New Line Maintenance Station in Sydney
05:27 PM EDT, 10/08/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Bombardier (BBD-B.TO) after trade Thursday said it is opening a new Line Maintenance Station in Sydney, Australia, expanding its network in the Asia-Pacific region. The aircraft manufacturer said the move adds to its existing Australian facilities in Perth and Melbourne. The Sydney location will provide emergency aircraft-on-ground support, unscheduled maintenance and select scheduled inspections. It will also offer mobile response capabilities, with technicians certified to service Bombardier's Learjet, Challenger and Global aircraft, the company said. "The site's new Component Repair and Overhaul workshop will further strengthen Bombardier's capabilities in APAC," it added.
Crypto prices
More
