Former Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Makoto Sakurai: Japan Faces Risk of Repeating Policy Mistakes, Inflation May Force Significant Interest Rate Hikes
- Former Bank of Japan Policy Board member Makoto Sakurai said on Monday that Japan is on the verge of repeating past policy mistakes—the same mistakes that once led its economy into decades of stagnation—because inflation risks triggered by the Iran conflict, if not addressed promptly, could force the central bank to raise interest rates sharply.
- The energy shock caused by this conflict has led policymakers, including Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, to look to historical experience for solutions. He specifically mentioned the two oil crises of 1973 and 1979-1980 as reference cases.
- What Ueda did not mention was Japan’s asset bubble, which was partly caused by the Bank of Japan’s large-scale money printing in 1986 to combat yen appreciation. Even as asset prices soared, the Bank of Japan maintained a loose policy stance and did not shift direction until 1989. A subsequent series of aggressive rate hikes burst the bubble and is widely seen as the main reason for three decades of economic stagnation.
- Sakurai, who remains in close contact with current policymakers, stated that if the Bank of Japan keeps rates low for too long, there is a risk of repeating the past, potentially forcing sharp rate hikes when inflation intensifies.
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