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Bank of America: Bull & Bear indicator rises to 8.5, triggers "sell" signal, warning that a global stock market correction is imminent

Bank of America: Bull & Bear indicator rises to 8.5, triggers "sell" signal, warning that a global stock market correction is imminent

格隆汇格隆汇2026/06/01 08:45
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Glonghui, June 1|As market speculation continues to surge, the Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator has further climbed from 8.0 to 8.5, triggering a "sell signal". Bank of America’s report warns that since 2002, this indicator has given a sell signal 17 times, after which global stock markets have dropped on average 2% to 3% within the following 2 to 3 months, with the maximum correction reaching as high as 15% to 20%. Bank of America notes that the latest spike in the Bull & Bear Indicator is mainly driven by strong fund inflows into high-yield bonds (HY) and emerging market bonds. Furthermore, Bank of America’s Global Breadth Rule shows that the market has reached "overbought" territory, with a net 57% of stock indices trading above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages worldwide. Despite the S&P 500 continuously reaching new highs, the market structure remains extremely fragile. Currently, only 21 stocks in the S&P 500 (around 4%) are hitting new highs, a proportion nearly identical to the 20 stocks at the peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000. Meanwhile, 222 S&P 500 stocks have already declined over 20% from their highs, and 109 have fallen by more than 40%. Institutions and global funds have begun to retreat. Last week, global equities saw a net outflow of $700 million, the first outflow in 9 weeks. Among these, the Japanese stock market registered an $8.2 billion outflow, the largest single-week outflow since May 2025. Facing a late-stage bubble market, Bank of America has provided a historical investment roadmap dating back to 1929— buy long-term bonds (historically, within 6 months after the market peaks, the median yield on 10-year Treasuries falls by 45 basis points) and allocate to defensive sectors, or to those sectors that have performed exceptionally poorly at the end of the bubble, while avoiding those assets that have been excessively hyped in the prior phase.
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