Analyst: Bitcoin volatility has dropped 56% from the quarterly high, and the market has entered a highly compressed consolidation phase.
BlockBeats news, on June 1, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in his latest report that the Bitcoin market has entered a clear volatility compression phase. The one-week realized volatility (30-day moving average) has dropped from about 39 in early March this year to around 17 currently, a quarterly decline of more than 56%, approaching historic lows. At present, BTC price is staying around $73,500, still below the 200-day moving average of about $79,500.
Historical experience shows that extremely low volatility often indicates that the market is building momentum, and is typically followed by large-scale directional movements. However, volatility compression itself does not provide directional signals, it just suggests that the market is about to make a new trend choice. Meanwhile, the Delta indicator—which reflects changes in market premium (the difference between market cap growth rate and realized market cap growth rate)—has remained in negative territory for six consecutive months, further falling to about -0.0013 in May. This indicator shows that the growth rate of Bitcoin's market cap continues to lag behind the growth rate of realized market cap, with market risk appetite and valuation premium contracting.
The current market shows a combination of "low volatility + cooling premium," which is not a typical overheated bull market structure, but is more similar to a consolidation phase after sentiment cooling. If BTC returns above the 200-day moving average and Delta rebounds to near zero, this would indicate the market re-entering a risk appetite expansion cycle; conversely, if volatility releases downward and Delta continues to deteriorate, the market may enter a deeper risk-off phase.
In conclusion, Axel Adler Jr summarized that the market direction is currently neutral, but the degree of compression has reached a high level, and the probability of large directional moves in the future is steadily increasing.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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