Caixin Futures: Ferrous metals show divergent trends; coking coal breaks above previous highs with strong performance

汇通财经2026/06/01 11:09

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⑴ Steel: Low-level oscillation, valuation declines. At the policy level, real estate and urban renewal guidelines have led to a slight improvement in steel demand expectations, but actual demand remains weak. Pig iron output remains at a high level, and inventory pressure is gradually emerging. In the October rebar contract, the top twenty positions saw a small increase in longs and a slight decrease in shorts; for the October hot-rolled coil contract, there was a more significant increase in long positions. On the technical side, the October rebar contract rebounded with reduced positions and reached the 40-day moving average. In terms of valuation, prices are close to the independent electric arc furnace off-peak electricity cost in East China and below the cost of blast furnace production, remaining at a neutral level. In the short term, prices are caught in a tug-of-war between cost support and weak supply-demand fundamentals. Attention should focus on changes in steel export orders going forward.⑵ Iron Ore: Valuation declines. On the supply side, shipments have decreased, but arrivals at ports remain high. With the end of the Australian fiscal year in June approaching, there is a push to boost shipments; on the demand side, pig iron output stays at a high level, providing support. Technically, the September contract oscillated and closed lower, and may test support in the 750 to 765 range below; from a capital perspective, both longs and shorts reduced their positions, with a greater reduction in longs. In the short term, iron ore’s valuation may decline further, but as long as pig iron output does not drop significantly, the downside is limited.⑶ Coking Coal: Oscillating on the strong side. Although supply in producing areas is gradually recovering, the safety supervision situation in Shanxi Province is tightening. After resumption, coal mine output is still below pre-suspension levels, so overall supply remains tight. Coal shipments are smooth and prices are mainly rising. In terms of capital, both long and short positions among the top twenty increased, with a larger increase in longs. Technically, the September contract broke above the previous high at 1330 with increased volume and open interest; in the short term, watch resistance at the 1400 round number and support moving up to the 1350 level below. Tight short-term supply, combined with June’s safety production month, means spot prices remain strongly driven, but weak steel demand warrants caution around volatility risks. Maintain a “long allocation” approach in the industry chain—do not chase longs.⑷ Coke: Beware of profit-taking after bullish news is priced in. Rising raw material prices have raised immediate costs for coking plants, forcing some to cut production, resulting in a marginal decline in coke output. Pig iron output remains steady-to-increasing and stays at a high level, providing solid demand support. Coking plants still have the willingness to raise prices. The fifth round of price increases has started, and the market expects a sixth (corresponding to warehouse receipt cost of 1,980 yuan/ton). Much of the short-term bullish news from price hikes has already been priced in, so beware of volatility risks.⑸ Silico-Manganese: Oscillating. Manganese ore shipments have rebounded, port inventories continue to decline, factory operating rates have slightly increased but remain low, and there is a clear tendency to bargain-shop, with overall supply and demand remaining weak and stable. Technically, the September silico-manganese contract closed higher within an oscillating trend, with support at the 10-day moving average below and resistance possibly at the 6,130 level above.

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The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has approved Starlink Mobile Gen2's application to launch 15,000 satellites. Low-frequency radio waves can expand coverage and enhance signal penetration through walls and tree canopies, improving indoor reception. The share prices of T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T each fell by nearly 7% in after-hours trading. On October 8, Reuters reported that SpaceX reached an agreement on Thursday to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-frequency spectrum, enabling Elon Musk's satellite company to directly challenge giant traditional wireless carriers across the United States from orbit. While Starlink Mobile’s existing global 2 GHz mid-band spectrum offers high bandwidth capacity, the new spectrum will allow signal penetration through obstacles. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Low-frequency bands are favored for their longer transmission ranges and ability to penetrate dense structures like walls and tree cover—addressing a major technical challenge previously faced by satellite-based mobile networks. By combining nationwide low-frequency radio coverage with high-frequency space transmission, SpaceX is positioning Starlink Mobile to entirely bypass traditional cell towers, challenging the wireless oligopoly both in wide-area coverage and indoor signal reliability. This deal also increases competitive pressure on traditional operators, shifting direct-to-device satellite technology from a supplementary feature for remote dead spots to a comprehensive commercial rival to terrestrial cellular networks. The share prices of T-Mobile US, Verizon, and AT&T each dropped nearly 7% in after-hours trading. “Incumbent wireless carriers have been publicly skeptical, arguing that SpaceX’s network quality could not match theirs,” said analysts at William Blair. “We expect SpaceX to launch very attractive bundled packages of Starlink broadband with Starlink Mobile, and the company may include Grok in these bundles.” The deal involves acquiring 100% of a nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio from private equity firm Grain Management, pending regulatory approval from the FCC. Earlier this year, Grain had acquired this spectrum from T-Mobile. Crucially, most existing, unmodified mobile phones already support the 800 MHz band, so consumers will not need to purchase special satellite phones. This week, the FCC also approved Starlink Mobile’s application for its second-generation satellite constellation, authorizing SpaceX to launch 15,000 satellites worldwide optimized for the 2 GHz band. This new satellite array will operate in very low Earth orbit, providing regular smartphones with higher bandwidth and low-latency connections.

路透社•2026/10/08 22:36

BRIEF-Veea Regains Full Compliance With Nasdaq Continued Listing Requirements

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Reuters•2026/10/08 21:54

BRIEF-Veea Regains Full Compliance With Nasdaq Continued Listing Requirements

Exclusive Report – Sources say Refresco is planning an initial public offering (IPO) with a valuation of over 10 billions dollars.

According to sources, several banks have been competing for IPO underwriting business in recent weeks. The sources said the potential listing could take place in either the United States or Europe. KKR acquired Refresco for approximately $8 billion in 2022. Reuters New York, October 8 – According to informed sources, Netherlands-based Refresco and its parent company KKR have recently heard pitches from several investment banks regarding their potential roles in the IPO of Refresco, one of the world's largest independent beverage manufacturers. Sources, speaking anonymously, revealed that Refresco is exploring listing plans, possibly in either the US or Europe, and that regardless of the market, the company’s valuation could surpass $10 billion. They cautioned that the plans are at a preliminary stage and may change. KKR, an investment firm, acquired the company in 2022 for about $8 billion through its global infrastructure strategy, which focuses on investing in critical infrastructure assets. Other investments under this strategy include utilities, energy, and telecommunications service companies. Both Refresco and KKR declined to comment. Founded in 1999 and headquartered in Rotterdam, Netherlands, Refresco partners with retailers such as Walmart and Aldi to produce private label beverage products, and also collaborates with branded beverage companies like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Monster Beverage. Refresco claims to be the world’s largest independent beverage manufacturer, providing production, bottling, warehousing, logistics, and distribution services to partners. The company operates 85 production sites across North America, Europe, and Australia. According to its annual report, the company achieved nearly $7 billion in revenue and about $930 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Sources noted that although Coca-Cola Consolidated mainly collaborates with Coca-Cola, this North Carolina-based beverage manufacturer could still be a relevant comparable for Refresco. According to data provider LSEG, that company's market capitalization is around $12.5 billion, and its EBITDA multiple is close to 12 times. Dealogic data show that the US IPO market had a strong start this year, with traditional IPO funding approaching $140 billion so far, making 2026 likely to approach the record levels seen in 2021. However, market volatility, rising bond yields, rate hike concerns, and increasing questions over AI spending and valuations are threatening the once-expected bumper autumn IPO season. Several companies, including smart ring maker Oura, have postponed planned listings in recent weeks. Nevertheless, IPO advisors and investors say companies continue to hold pitches with investment banks to vie for underwriting spots—known as “beauty contests.” They are also continuing informal meetings with investors and other preparations to allow them to move quickly when market conditions improve. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into various languages. Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translations, and such translations are provided solely for reader convenience. Reuters accepts no liability for any damage or loss caused by use of the automated translation function.)

路透社•2026/10/08 21:36