Caixin Futures: Energy and chemical products rebound with fluctuations, asphalt spot price rises to 4,450 yuan/ton
- Crude Oil: Oscillating rebound. Over the weekend, relevant parties signaled easing geopolitical tensions. Prices of energy chemicals remain relatively high, but high basis in some products limits short-term declines. A short-term oscillating rebound is expected.
- Fuel Oil: Oscillating rebound. During the Middle East conflict, oil-producing countries cut production, and domestic high-sulfur fuel oil has a high dependence on imports. US-Iran negotiations are stalled, but may move towards easing in the future. The short-term situation remains uncertain, allowing for short-term bullish positions, but the upside is expected to be limited.
- Asphalt: Oscillating with a strong bias. Today, the price of Shandong 70# heavy traffic asphalt is 4,450 yuan/ton, up 80 compared to last period. Transactions of some high cost-performance resources are acceptable, and cross-regional movement has increased. In June, domestic local asphalt refineries’ total output is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons month-on-month, a drop of 28.5%. Inventory at 54 domestic asphalt sample plants is 856,000 tons, a decrease of 9.4% month-on-month and an increase of 1.2% year-on-year; inventory at 104 social storage locations is 1.381 million tons, down 11.1% month-on-month and down 26.3% year-on-year. In the short term, strong spot prices and continually declining inventories may make asphalt oscillate with a strong bias; in the medium term, pay attention to developments in US-Iran relations.
- Glass: Limited room for rebound. Enterprises in Northern China are performing well in terms of shipments, and buyers maintain procurement based on actual needs. Current industry daily output is 145,700 tons. Last week, upstream manufacturers' inventories increased by 368,000 heavy boxes, up 0.48% month-on-month and up 13.54% year-on-year. Low supply provides some price support, and energy price increases drive costs higher. Weak short-term rebound is expected, but medium-term supply and demand pressure persists, so there is caution regarding further upward movement.
- Soda Ash: Limited room for rebound. Today, the domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with unremarkable trading. Maintenance units are gradually resuming, increasing supply. Downstream demand is average, procurement is slowing, and enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. Today’s soda ash capacity utilization rate is 74.41%, with total domestic inventory at 1.7046 million tons, up 7,600 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 0.45%. Considering persistently high coal costs and numerous soda ash maintenance enterprises, short-term prices may oscillate and rebound, but medium-term high supply and weak demand are unlikely to change, limiting upside.
- Caustic Soda: Short-term rebound. Over the weekend and early in the week, Shandong liquid caustic soda prices declined. Overall, liquid caustic soda prices remained stable, with minor declines in some areas due to slower shipments. Some previously maintained equipment is gradually resuming operation, and local production is increasing.
- Methanol: Oscillating rebound. Today’s spot price in Taicang is 3,140 yuan, up 55; Inner Mongolia northern line price is 2,725 yuan, up 50. On Monday, the domestic methanol market operated strongly, with futures rising in tandem with the commodity market. The coastal market’s trading focus increased due to low inventories and low imports, while the basis remained weakly stable. In the main inland production areas, loading queues continue, and the spot market remains tight overall. Last week's data shows port inventories decreased by 73,500 tons month-on-month (down 9.99%), producer inventories stood at 343,500 tons, down 20,700 tons from last period (down 5.68%). Recently, oil prices have rebounded and high basis has limited declines. Methanol may remain oscillating with a strong bias.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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