Multiple Asian countries respond urgently to "El Niño"

"A rare 'super' El Niño event is becoming increasingly likely." On May 31, Fortune reported that the impact of El Niño will trigger chain reactions in global agricultural and energy markets. The timing of its appearance coincides with serious challenges to the global economy, which is already facing multiple issues such as energy shortages caused by tensions in the Middle East, insufficient fertilizer supplies, and inflation.

Lianhe Zaobao (Singapore) explicitly stated that the tense situation in the Middle East, combined with El Niño, has switched on two 'red lights' for energy, placing a crisis-induced 'grill test' on many Asian countries.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center previously predicted an 82% chance of El Niño forming between May and July, and a 57% chance of it reaching “strong” or “very strong” levels before September.

According to the monthly forecast update released last Friday by the India Meteorological Department, “the probability of heatwaves increases in June this year, which may have significant impacts on public health, water resources, electricity consumption, and essential public services.” Nikkei Asia, citing the latest research data, stated that the total losses caused by a single El Niño event could reach several trillion US dollars.

Pranjul Bhandari, HSBC India economist, said, “Today, temperatures are surpassing key thresholds, and their impact is no longer confined to perishable farm products like vegetables; it now extends to storable crops such as grains, pulses, and oilseeds. Even supplies of animal proteins such as eggs and meat have recently been affected.”

Additionally, rising sea temperatures may impact fish stocks, causing key species to die or migrate away from traditional fishing grounds, dealing a heavy blow to fishermen already struggling to put to sea due to rising fuel costs. For Asian consumers who are already fighting inflation, this means their everyday food expenses will increase further.

“This year’s El Niño is threatening farmers in many regions; widespread drought could seriously impact crops, hydropower stations, and data centers.” According to Nikkei Asia, El Niño’s impact may be most significant in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, where the resulting drought and warming effects commonly overlap, further intensifying the shock of extreme weather.

According to The Philippine Daily Inquirer, losses to Philippine agriculture due to the 2023–2024 El Niño event reached 57.78 billion pesos (about 6.332 billion RMB), the highest record in recent years.

"Although this year's El Niño may surpass that of 2015, Asian nations have also improved their ability to safeguard agricultural production." According to the report, Malaysian Minister of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability Arthur Joseph Kurup stated the government is preparing potential emergency measures such as demand management and water quota systems; Indonesian Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni said the country is closely monitoring groundwater levels, and if they fall below critical lines, the government will implement artificial rain and other measures; Philippine Agriculture Secretary Laurel stated that the Department of Agriculture has concurrently launched a series of responses to El Niño, including cloud seeding, the deployment of solar irrigation systems, adjusting planting calendars, and promoting crop diversification plans to stabilize farmers’ incomes.

India has also taken multiple measures. According to Subhash Pillai, a specialist at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute in New Delhi, an increasing number of farmers are using piped water supply, and the introduction of high-temperature and drought-resistant crop varieties has also been effective.