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False breakout signal emerges in U.S. Treasury yields; Trump may seize opportunity to reassure the bond market, with 4.426% as the key dividing line between bulls and bears

False breakout signal emerges in U.S. Treasury yields; Trump may seize opportunity to reassure the bond market, with 4.426% as the key dividing line between bulls and bears

汇通财经汇通财经2026/06/02 10:09
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(1) The benchmark US Treasury yields have risen over the past three months due to inflation concerns triggered by the Iran war, posing a challenge to the President’s desire to maintain low interest rates. However, recent yield performance amid fragile peace talks suggests Trump may have an opportunity to bring rates back into a controllable range in the short term.(2) The 10-year US Treasury yield recently experienced what traders call a “false breakout”: last month, yields briefly broke above the long-term trendline connecting the highs of October 2023 and January 2025 but failed to hold above it, which typically indicates a trend reversal. The yield is currently around 4.50%.(3) The chart shows that if yields continue to fall below last week's low of 4.426%, the most likely move is toward the 3.9% to 4.6% range, a range commonly seen over the past year. To further decline toward the 3.60% area, yields would need to break below the 3.85% to 3.90% range.(4) The longer-term trend remains bullish for yields, with the monthly chart displaying a bullish pattern. If yields rise again above the 4.687% to 4.80% range, it will signal the re-establishment of the upward trend.(5) The US jobs report released this week will add uncertainty and may push yields to fluctuate in either direction. The key support is at 4.426%, and for the overall uptrend to resume, yields need to break above the 4.687% to 4.80% range.
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