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Oil prices surge by 7.5 rupees, India faces a 48 basis points inflation impact

Oil prices surge by 7.5 rupees, India faces a 48 basis points inflation impact

汇通财经汇通财经2026/06/02 13:19
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⑴ Since May 15, the price of gasoline and diesel in India has increased by about 7.5 rupees per liter. If global crude oil prices remain high, the cumulative increase may approach 10 rupees per liter in the coming weeks.⑵ Crisil estimates that the current fuel price hike could contribute about 36 basis points to India's consumer price index inflation, and if the price rises to 10 rupees per liter, the impact could expand to nearly 48 basis points.⑶ Rising fuel costs will drive up transportation and manufacturing costs. Road transport accounts for roughly 71% of cargo shipments in India, and fuel makes up 42% of operating expenses for transport operators. Companies are likely to pass on additional costs to consumers by raising prices.⑷ Food categories reliant on transportation are most affected, including dairy, fruits and vegetables, pulses, spices, tea, coffee, eggs, meat, and fish. The fading of favorable base effects could further intensify food inflation in the coming quarters.⑸ The manufacturing sector is also under pressure. Costs are rising in industries such as apparel, consumer electronics, timber, cement, ceramics, as well as chemicals, coal, and metals. To protect profits, companies may either increase prices or reduce product volumes.⑹ Although inflation remains below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target, Crisil points out that the GST reduction measures announced in September 2025 will be difficult to fully offset the impact of high fuel costs. The Reserve Bank of India will closely monitor inflation trends, household expectations, monsoon performance, and potential El Niño-related risks to food prices.
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