Taiwan Dollar: Growth and AI flows anchor TWD – Commerzbank

Commerzbank reports that USD/TWD traded steadily around 31.37, with realised one‑month volatility near 4.5%, lower than several regional peers. Taiwan’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised up sharply to 14.6% year-on-year, the strongest since 1987, driven by robust exports and AI-related semiconductor demand. DGBAS raised its full-year growth forecast to 9.6%, supporting ongoing capital inflows.

Strong GDP and AI cycle support TWD

"The final Q1 GDP was revised up more than expected to 14.6% yoy from 13.7% in the advance estimate (Bloomberg consensus: 13.7%) vs 13.0% in Q4 2025."

"DGBAS raised its full-year growth forecast to 9.6% from 7.7%, reflecting the stronger-than-expected demand for AI-related products."

"Looking ahead, growth momentum is expected to remain firm, driven by sustained AI-related demand."

"DGBAS expects this share to rise to 40% by year-end as tech firms fulfill its strong capex commitment to developing AI-related infrastructure."

"This low-volatility regime in USD/TWD is sustained by persistent inflows from the trade surplus and portfolio inflows linked to the AI-related equity rally."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)