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Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous and new energy metals fluctuate, spot lithium carbonate drops to 169,950 yuan

Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous and new energy metals fluctuate, spot lithium carbonate drops to 169,950 yuan

汇通财经汇通财经2026/06/03 12:14
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⑴ Copper: Volatile trading. On the macro front, the situation between the US and Iran has suddenly escalated, affecting multiple countries. Fundamentally, the US is expected to announce changes to tariffs on imported copper soon. The anticipation of tariffs has sparked a global “rush for copper,” and tight supply is driving copper prices to run strong in the short term. Although high prices have led to caution on the demand side, robust expectations are still providing support for copper prices.⑵ Aluminum: Volatile trading. The macro environment has been impacted by the escalation of US-Iran tensions. Fundamentally, the Guinean government is expected to announce export control measures for bauxite in June, raising concerns about raw material supply in the market. The geopolitical situation has led to a stronger dollar, putting pressure on aluminum prices, but considering overall fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a mainly volatile trend.⑶ Zinc: Volatile but biased towards strength. The macro environment has been impacted by the escalation of US-Iran tensions. With disruptions on the mining side, overseas processing fees remain at a low level and smelters have little willingness to produce. The increase in maintenance in June and strong expectations for supply contraction provide solid support at the bottom, although consumption remains weak on the demand side. Zinc prices are expected to remain volatile but biased towards strength in the short term, and the main strategy is to buy on dips.⑷ Precious Metals: Volatile trading. On the macro front, the US-Iran situation has suddenly escalated, affecting multiple countries. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and other locations in the Middle East. Given the continued recurrence and uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile amid competing dynamics.⑸ Lithium Carbonate: Volatile trading. The center of gravity for lithium carbonate futures continues to decline, with the main contract closing down by 4.08% at 166,760 RMB/ton. Fundamentally supply and demand remain relatively stable; short-term incremental growth in raw material supply is limited. Downstream lithium battery production has increased month by month, and downstream spot procurement willingness has rebounded slightly after the price drop. However, noticeable divergence has emerged in market inventory structure. Social inventories continue to deplete, while exchange warehouse receipts keep rising and hitting record highs, mainly due to upstream smelters actively registering warehouse receipts to hedge their profits amid high prices, while terminal and trader delivery willingness is weakening. The contradiction between upstream delivery and downstream procurement lag is aggravating expectations of spot selling pressure, suppressing bullish confidence. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to remain volatile and weak. Today, battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price fell 5,000 RMB to 169,950 RMB/ton, with the 2606 and 2607 contracts at deep discounts compared to spot.
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