Caixin Futures: Energy and chemical products rebound amid fluctuations, asphalt spot prices remain stable at 4,470 yuan/ton

⑴ Crude Oil: Fluctuating rebound. Yesterday, the US military stated that Iran launched attacks across the entire Middle East, with the US intercepting several missiles and drones. In the short term, repeated geopolitical events triggered a rebound in crude oil and the energy-chemical sector. For some varieties, a higher basis pushed futures prices closer to spot prices, shifting the short-term outlook to a stronger fluctuation. If geopolitics subsequently ease, the rebound is expected to be limited, energy-chemical products will show strong current reality but weak expectations, and short-term volatility will intensify.⑵ Fuel Oil: Fluctuating rebound. During the Middle East conflict, oil-producing countries reduced production, and domestic high-sulfur fuel oil is highly dependent on imports. US-Iran negotiations are deadlocked, and recently Russian fuel oil exports have also been disrupted, while electricity demand is in peak season. Rerouting ships has increased marine fuel demand, and fundamentals are relatively strong. Overall, the situation may develop toward easing, and amid short-term uncertainty, a brief bullish position can be taken, but the upside is expected to be limited.⑶ Asphalt: Fluctuating to the strong side. Today, the price of Shandong 70# heavy traffic asphalt is 4,470 yuan/ton, flat month-on-month; transaction activity for some high-priced resources is average, with most participants making purchases based on rigid demand. In June, total domestic local refinery asphalt production is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons month-on-month, down 28.5%. Inventories at 54 domestic sample asphalt plants total 856,000 tons, down 3.6% from May 28 and up 1.2% year-on-year; inventories at 104 social warehouses total 1.381 million tons, down 2.7% from May 28 and 26.3% lower year-on-year. In the short term, spot remains strong and inventories continue to fall; asphalt may fluctuate to the strong side in the short term, and medium-term attention should be paid to the US-Iran situation.⑷ Glass: Sell on rallies. Today, trading in the North China market was lukewarm overall, with participants purchasing as needed and most prices remaining stable. The East China market operated stably; at the beginning of the month, some companies managed credit sales, and mid- and downstream buyers were cautious, primarily on rigid demand. Current daily industry output is 145,700 tons; last week, upstream manufacturer inventories increased by 368,000 heavy boxes (+0.48% MoM, +13.54% YoY). Persistently low supply provides some support for prices, while rising energy prices are increasing costs. Short-term rebound is expected to be weak, but medium-term supply-demand pressures persist, so potential gains are relatively limited.⑸ Soda Ash: Sell on rallies. Today, the domestic soda ash market remained stable, with little price fluctuation. Output at some enterprises has declined, reducing supply. Downstream demand is moderate, with low-price restocking as the main activity. Recently, trading has slowed, sentiment is weak, and downstream players face significant pressure.⑺ Methanol: Fluctuating rebound. Today, spot price in Taicang is 3,203 (+13); in the northern Inner Mongolia line it is 2,750 (+20). On Wednesday, the domestic methanol market operated on the firm side, with futures prices rising in tandem with commodities. In coastal markets, given low inventories and reduced imports, transaction focus shifted higher. Basis remained weak and stable, restrictions and queuing continued in main inland production areas, and the overall spot supply is tight.