ADP data surpasses expectations combined with high oil prices, leading to continued sell-off in US bonds
- ADP employment data exceeded expectations with an increase of 122,000 people, marking the highest growth in a year and a half. The escalation in Middle East tensions has pushed up oil prices, and U.S. Treasury bonds declined across the board overnight. Details about an attack on Kuwait Airways point to Iran, with the United States and Iran expressing different stances on negotiations—America claims talks are ongoing, while Iran says communication has stalled. Despite Trump stating that Iran has agreed not to possess nuclear weapons, oil prices and U.S. bond markets remain unconvinced, with yields and oil prices staying at high levels before the release of ADP data.
- After the ADP data was released, U.S. Treasuries retreated further. Commodity trading advisors and other trend-following funds increased selling, and hedge funds sold 30,000 five-year, 40,000 ten-year, and 10,000 long-term Treasury futures contracts. The sell-off triggered support level tests for various maturities: the 2-year found support at 4.08%, the 3-year at 4.13%, the 5-year at 4.22%, and the 10-year at 4.49%, while the 30-year remained below the 5.00% support level.
- Regarding the latest yields, the 2-year stands at 4.086%, the 10-year at 4.491%, and the 30-year at 4.991%. The 2-year/10-year spread is 40.47 basis points, and the 5-year/30-year spread is 77.3 basis points. After the sell-off, small-scale algorithmic short covering was triggered, temporarily easing selling pressure.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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