Oil supply and demand tightens, oil prices may surge in the short term; gold's safe-haven logic fails and physical demand collapses; AI's long-term productivity dividend yet to materialize — 0603 Macro Overview
- As demand is released, peak season arrives, and inventories approach warning thresholds, oil supply and demand may tighten again, putting upward pressure on oil prices. After the reopening of the strait, oil prices may remain at $90/barrel for a quarter, with increased volatility, but a downward trend is expected in the medium to long term. Additionally, blockades may impact chemicals, agricultural products, etc., raising global inflation stickiness.
- In May, Shanghai gold experienced wide fluctuations and trend pressure, mainly suppressed by the strengthening US dollar and US Treasuries, the failure of geopolitical risk-aversion logic, and a collapse in physical demand. Subsequently, gold pricing will turn to monetary policy as the primary driver, with central bank purchases providing bottom support, but a strong dollar and high interest rates will continue to dominate in the short term.
- Although AI has long been regarded as a general-purpose technology revolution with the potential to boost productivity, short-term productivity gains have yet to materialize, while the job market has already contracted, leading to a reassessment of expectations. Amid employment shocks, middle and high-skill white-collar workers are the first to bear the brunt, and some may strengthen precautionary savings, dragging down consumption and domestic demand.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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